Hot Again Today But a Change Coming

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The upper ridge to our west forced itself eastward yesterday bringing Central Alabama one of the warmest days of the year. Today heat values will be up while we stay dry across the northern two-thirds of the state of Alabama. Highs will be in the 93 to 98 range today with heat indices climbing into the 100 to 105 range in the area generally south of Birmingham. The National Weather Service has posted a heat advisory for the southern portion of Central Alabama including places like Montgomery, Selma, Tuscaloosa, Clanton, Troy, and Demopolis to name a few. But another major change is coming with yet another summer cold front promising to bring thunderstorms on Monday with much cooler and drier air to the Southeast US on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The upper ridge gets pushed back later today with the digging of a strong trough across the Great Lakes region and into the eastern US. This will force a cold front – the fourth one in July this year – into the Southeast US and bring a round of thunderstorms to the area Monday. With the front coming in just a tad faster than I thought yesterday, SPC has defined a specific slight risk area for the development of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind and perhaps large hail with the front on Monday afternoon mainly in South Alabama and stretching eastward into South Georgia and the coastal area of the Carolinas.

The trough sweeps in pushing the front well down into the Gulf of Mexico Monday evening setting us up for cooler and drier air once again. Wednesday morning we could see record lows set in Central Alabama. The current record for July 30th is 61 set in 1994 for Birmingham.

The pattern remains unchanged with a trough over the eastern half of the country for the latter half of the week, so we’ll see a gradual warming trend as moisture levels slowly come back up. But with the trough pattern over the East I expect us to stay below seasonal averages with highs mainly in the 80s for the latter part of the week and only small chances for showers by the end of the week.

Not quite as hot and dry at the coast for beach goers. There will be a good supply of sunshine for the coast today with only widely scattered storms. Highs will be in the upper 80s along the immediate coast, and Gulf water temperatures are generally in the low to mid 80s. Monday will be stormy at the beach especially for the afternoon hours, but the weather improves for the rest of the week.

The tropical Atlantic basin remains generally quiet. NHC is keeping an eye on a tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend but this could change into next week as the wave moves into an area where conditions are expected to be more conducive for development.

The first half of voodoo country as we head into August looks like a continuation of the eastern US trough pattern. The GFS does indicate a change to a more ridge like pattern with increased warmth as we get into the middle of August.

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I expect James Spann to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted Monday morning as we watch yet another summertime front come into Alabama. Stay cool today and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather