Midday Update

The latest day once convective outlook from the SPC continues to have much of northern Alabama under a slight risk for severe weather, with a moderate risk to our northwest. The storms that were affecting the Tennessee Valley earlier this morning dissipated as they moved off towards the southeast. At this time, there are just a few showers across the state and with a mix of sun and clouds, it is a very warm and muggy day.

As we head through the afternoon, we will continue to see our instability values increase. We are expecting to see showers and storms develop across northern Mississippi and northern Alabama out ahead of the main complex to our northwest. The storms that initiate ahead of the MCS will do so along outflow boundaries from today’s earlier activity across the Tennessee Valley.

The main threat for severe weather looks as though it will be confined to the northern third of Alabama, roughly along and north of Intestate 20. As storms develop, they should strengthen rapidly as ample instability is available. Storms today will be capable of producing damaging straight-line winds, severe hail, and very heavy rainfall. As we saw this morning to our north, there could be some areas that do see isolated flash flooding. Storms will also produce frequent and dangerous lightning. Though storms could be severe, shear values are not overly impressive, and therefore the chance for tornadoes is very limited.

By mid to late afternoon, we are expecting thunderstorms to begin to develop. We will be watching the main complex to our northwest as it will continue to drop towards the southeast, which will bring it across northern Alabama. The latest runs of the models show a bulk of this activity impacting the state between 3 and 9 PM. At some point this afternoon, we are likely to have a watch issued for parts of Alabama.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather