Risk for Severe Weather

An active day of severe weather is ahead for parts of the country as the SPC has issued a slight risk from the Plains into the Southeast, and that risk does include much of North-Central Alabama. The areas outlined in green are in this risk that includes Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden, Huntsville, Cullman, and Muscle Shoals. The SPC has also issued a moderate risk over portions of Missouri, Arkansas, and western Tennessee.

This morning, we are already seeing an area of active weather across the Tennessee Valley where strong storms are affecting the Huntsville area. These storms are just below severe limits, but are producing gusty winds, hail, lots of rainfall, and frequent lightning. There are even a few flash flood warnings in that part of the state. Over the next few hours, this area of activity will continue to sink off towards the southeast as it slowly weakens.

To the west, we can begin to see the next, stronger area of thunderstorms moving our of Kansas and Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas. This complex of storms will be sliding towards the southeast along a front boundary that has moved into the area. This complex of storms is likely to reach Alabama later this evening. Throughout the day, we are likely to see additional storms develop ahead of this complex.

For us in Central Alabama, the bulk of the activity should begin to affect us later this afternoon. Instability values will be in 2500-3500 J/kg range which is more than sufficient for strong and severe storms, but shear values are near zero, so this is not really a tornado threat. The main concerns will be large hail, damaging winds, courtesy of some microburst, as well we very heavy rainfall that could lead to isolated flash flooding.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather