Notes On The Severe Weather Threat

Alabama will have the dual threat of severe threat of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding tomorrow through early Wednesday; here are some important notes concerning the threat.

A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible today, but the severe weather risk today and tonight remains west of our state. Then, tomorrow, SPC has parts of North and West Alabama in an enhanced “moderate risk”, with a “slight risk” up for much of the rest of the state…

Then, on Tuesday, all of Alabama is in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather…

TIMING: Here is the latest graphic from the NWS in Birmingham concerning the potential timing of the waves of rain and storms…

EARLY TOMORROW: Severe thunderstorms will form west of Alabama this afternoon and tonight; there is potential for a few strong tornadoes Arkansas and some of the adjacent states. These storms will move into Northwest Alabama during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, and they could produce strong, gusty winds. We can’t rule out an isolated tornado, but the storms will be outrunning the best dynamics and it is a marginal threat.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON/TOMORROW NIGHT: This will be, most likely, the most significant round of severe weather for Alabama, as a short wave rotating around a large upper trough just west of the state will encounter an unstable airmass with a decent amount of speed and directional shear. The core window for this will come about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow until 10:00 a.m. Tuesday, and all modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: It remains to be seen if the air can sufficiently destabilize for another round of severe weather Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, but it is not out of the question. Just be aware there is some possibility of this; we can address it in later forecasts. The rain and storms will end late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.

FLOODING: Rain amounts of around five inches are expected over a good part of North Alabama, and flash flooding is a very real possibility.

If you live in flood prone areas, be sure and pay close attention to flash flood warnings.

THE “APRIL 27, 2011 QUESTION”: As I have stated many times, I don’t answer the question “will this be like April 27, 2011”? That event was generational with a total of 62 tornadoes in our state; on average those type days happen about every 40 years in Alabama. Like March 21, 1932 and April 3, 1974. All it takes is one tornado in the entire state, and if it comes through your neighborhood, that makes it YOUR April 27. We have to be prepared one way or another.

The Alabama Emergency Management Office sent a Twitter post late yesterday that contained some incorrect information, and tried to tie the coming event to April 27, 2011. Thankfully they deleted that tweet.

Severe weather events in Alabama are to be expected this time of the year; it is the core of the spring tornado season. This is not unusual, and there is no need to panic or be upset. It is very unfortunate some media outlets blow out as much hyperbole as they can scaring people into watching them or reading their material. That is wrong and a sad way of attracting viewers or readers.

Yes, this is a significant threat of severe weather, and yes, we need to be prepared. But no time to be fearful.

CALL TO ACTION: As part of your severe plan, you need to be able to hear warnings, know where you are going as a place of safety in the event you are in a tornado warning polygon, and have a readiness kit in that safe place.

GETTING THE WARNING: You should have multiple layers of getting tornado warnings. A NOAA Weather Radio is the baseline; you can buy them at places like Publix and Academy Sports for about 30 dollars. We have spent many weeks on the road programming them at our events, but you can program them yourselves… it isn’t too difficult.

The Birmingham transmitter is operating at reduced capacity for about one week… if you live in the Birmingham metro are not getting the test warnings, you will need to go the the next way of getting warnings. Understand this impacts the Birmingham metro only, NOT any other part of Alabama.

There are very few weather apps that provide reliable, timely warnings through push notifications. Very few. The two we recommend are MyWarn, and iMap WeatherRadio. Both are available for iPhone, iPad, and Android devices. You can also watch ABC 33/40’s long form tornado coverage through those apps.

If you still have a home phone, WeatherCall is a good option.

Sirens are a last resort for a small number of people that are outdoors. You will not be able to hear a siren in most homes, businesses, churches, and schools. The “siren mentality” has killed so many people in our state.

Never totally rely on social media for warnings. I use it heavily, but remember Facebook filters what you see in your timeline… much of what I post there you won’t see unless you come over to my profile. There is no filtering on Google Plus or Twitter, but with all the traffic it is easy to miss warnings.

ON THE RADIO: In the event we go into continuous tornado coverage on ABC 33/40 in coming days, these are the radio stations that usually carry our audio…

Birmingham
WZZK 104.7
WEZZ 97.3
WBHK 98.7

Tuscaloosa
WBEI 101.7
WTUG 92.9
WFFN 95.3
WDGM 99.1

Gadsden
WGMZ 93.1

Anniston
WTDR 92.7

SAFE PLACE: You should know the rules… small room, lowest floor, near the center of the house, and away from windows. You have to leave mobile homes for a substantial shelter or building. No vehicles. Identify the same place and be sure your kids know.

READINESS KIT: In that kit you need helmets for everyone in your family. Bicycle helmets, batting helmets, etc. We have had much loss of life due to head injuries in tornadoes in Alabama. Also, hard sole shoes, whistles or air horns for everyone (paramedics can find you if you need help via the sound they generate), etc. See more ideas here.

We will have frequent updates here on the blog as the event gets closer, so stay tuned…

Tags: severe outbreak

Category: Alabama's Weather