Strong/Severe Storms Late Tomorrow Night

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WARM, UNSETTLED WEATHER: Moisture has increased overnight, and a few showers are on radar this morning at daybreak over parts of West and South Alabama, mainly south of U.S. 82. These showers are moving northeast, and we will mention the risk of a shower or two through tomorrow as a southerly flow increases across our state.

The sky will be mostly cloudy; we reach the upper 60s today, followed by mid 70s tomorrow. Tomorrow’s record high of 73 (set in 1923) is in danger.

TO THE WEST: Severe storms will erupt tomorrow afternoon over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. SPC has now put up a “moderate risk” of severe weather near the Mississippi River from Memphis down to Vicksburg.

The higher severe weather probabilities are centered around the Mississippi Delta region, where a few tornadoes are possible along with storms with strong, potentially damaging winds.

FOR TRAVELERS: In the cold air sector of this storm, snow and ice will be a problem from North Oklahoma up through parts of the Midwest and the Great Lakes.

THE ALABAMA SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: Our main risk of strong to severe storms will come late tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. Here are the specifics…

TIMING: The main band of storms should begin to enter Northwest Alabama late tomorrow night around 10:00, moving southeast overnight. The main twelve hour window for storms will come from 10:00 tomorrow night through 10:00 Sunday morning. Storms will linger into Sunday afternoon over the southern half of Alabama.

MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT/MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER: SPC has issued the standard “slight risk” of severe weather late tomorrow night generally west of a line from Gadsden to Montgomery to Orange Beach. Still looks like a mostly linear event here with the main threat coming from strong straight line winds along the QLCS (quasi linear convective system).

The low level jet will be screaming (60 knots about 5,000 feet off the ground), and that could be transferred down to the surface pretty easily with the stronger storms. Wind gusts could knock down some trees and power lines in scattered pockets.

But, there is sufficient shear to support a few rotating updrafts and isolated short lived tornadoes within the line.

CALL TO ACTION: Since the severe weather risk will come during the “middle of the night”, be sure your NOAA Weather Radio is working properly with fresh batteries. Have your cell phones charged and be sure your warning app is properly programmed (good warning apps include MyWarn and iMap WeatherRadio).

I expect most of the warnings to be severe thunderstorm warnings late tomorrow night and early Sunday morning, but a tornado warning or two is possible as well. One of the keys to being safe during severe weather is simply being able to hear warnings. If you rely on outdoor warning sirens, you won’t have much hope of receiving them. A NOAA Weather Radio is the baseline, and a good smart phone app is also part of the plan.

CHRISTMAS WEEK: Monday will be breezy and colder with a clearing sky; the high will drop to around 50 degrees. Tuesday looks cold; the latest GFS drops the high into the 40s following a morning low in the 20s. And, for Christmas Day, the weather will be chilly and sunny with a low in the 20s and a high in the low 50s.

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We are going into our holiday schedule, so just one video per day through New Years. I will post new forecast notes here this afternoon… enjoy the day…

Tags: warm

Category: Alabama's Weather