Dry Through Thursday; Stormy Weekend

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DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK: Look for sunny pleasant days and clear cold nights through Thursday. We will see a high near 60 today, but tomorrow will be about 5 degrees cooler thanks to a clipper type system passing to the north. Then, on Thursday afternoon, we should reach the low 60s.

Moisture levels rise Friday, and a few scattered showers could break out Friday afternoon across the northern half of Alabama. The high Friday will be in the mid 60s as our gradual warming trend continues.

EYES TO THE WEST: A deep upper low will be over the northern Gulf of California Friday, and how that lifts out will pretty much determine the weekend weather for much of the central and eastern U.S.

STORMY WEEKEND: A surface low is expected to form over Central Texas Friday… then moving through Arkansas and Kentucky over the weekend, supported by the upper trough lifting out of the Southwest U.S., and will bring the risk of strong to severe storms across the Deep South.

Significant differences continues between the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) global models, and due to the uncertainty the guys at the Storm Prediction Center have not issued any formal severe weather risk for now in their day 4-8 convective outlook, and that is a good call. Just too early.

Saturday will be warm and breezy, with a high between 70 and 75 degrees. A chance we establish a new record high for December 21; the current record is 73 degrees set in 1923. Scattered showers and storms are possible, but the main window for organized strong to severe storms will come Saturday night, or Sunday.

GFS: This model offers a more aggressive severe weather look for Alabama, a low level jet (around 5,000 feet) of over 60 knots, surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s, and low level bulk shear (surface to 925 mb) of 40 knots. If this happens to be the correct solution, the main window for severe thunderstorms in our state will come from about midnight Saturday night through 12:00 noon Sunday, and all modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.

ECMWF: The Euro is slower, and shows a stronger ridge over the South Atlantic coast. This shunts the better severe weather parameters just north and west of Alabama, and shows a squall line moving through here Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. There would be some potential for gusty straight line winds with the squall line, but the severe weather threat for Alabama could be somewhat marginal.

BOTTOM LINE: It is simply too early to make the call on the magnitude of the weekend severe weather threat, or lay out the timing and modes of severe weather to expect. We should have better clarity early tomorrow morning on this discussion.

But, if you are traveling this weekend, just be aware of the potential for strong to severe storms across the southern U.S. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

CHRISTMAS WEEK: Monday will be dry, but breezy and colder with a high around 50 degrees. Cool and dry weather is the story for Tuesday and Christmas Day, with highs in the 50s, and lows in the 30s, right at seasonal averages for late December in Alabama.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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TOYS FOR TOTS: Our annual 26 hour marathon kicks off this afternoon at 4:00… I will be live from Legacy BBQ on Highway 150 in Hoover on ABC 33/40 at 4, 5, 6, and 10… please consider bringing a new, unwrapped toy for families that are in need. The U.S. Marines will distribute the toys next week.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day…

Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather