Warm Today; Developing Showers/Storms

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EYES TO THE WEST: A nasty winter weather situation is developing west of Alabama, where ice storm warnings are up through parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and West Tennessee because of freezing rain expected there tonight and tomorrow. But, around here, we will enjoy spring-like warmth today with a high in the mid 70s, not far from today’s record high of 79 set in 1998.

Ahead of the cold front, showers and storms will form over Alabama over the next 12-18 hours.

STRONG STORMS? While there is no formal severe weather risk, SPC maintains the low end, 5 percent severe weather possibilities over much of North/Central Alabama today and tomorrow ahead of the Arctic boundary. The RAP model is showing a 0-3 km EHI (energy helicity index) value of 2 over North Alabama later today, which is significant. But, wind fields are not really strong, and lapse rates are marginal. It is just not a classic severe weather setup, but anytime you have mid 70s in December, you have to watch developments on the radar pretty closely. Better chance of strong storms will come this afternoon and early tonight.

And, no, this is not unusual; this is the core of the fall tornado season in Alabama.

BAD SITUATION TO THE WEST: Freezing rain and ice will be a huge problem tonight and tomorrow for cities like Dallas, Little Rock, and Memphis… if you are headed west, be aware of this issue. Power outages are likely due to the ice load on power lines…

COLD AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD TOMORROW: Rain is likely statewide tomorrow; it should be a good soaking. And, where warm air lingers, a strong storm is possible. But temperatures will be all over the board, and I still can see a 50 degree swing across our state. It might be a situation at midday where Muscle Shoals is in the 30s, and Montgomery is in the 80s. Your temperature tomorrow will depend on where you live.

Places like Florence, Haleyville, Hamilton, and Moulton will be in the cold air all day with temperatures only in the 30s and 40s.

For Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, the morning should be warm with 60s and 70s, but we fall into the 40s tomorrow afternoon.

For areas southeast of Birmingham… places like Ashland, Alex City, Roanoke… you will be in the warm air all day with a high well into the 70s. And, this is where afternoon storms could be strong.

ICE FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT? I do think a period of freezing rain is likely tomorrow night west of a line from Sulligent to Haleyville to Decatur to Hazel Green. Freezing rain is rain that falls with surface temperatures at or below 32 degrees. There could be a little bridge icing up in that part of Alabama for a brief time, but we don’t expect power outages, and the really bad icing will remain west of our state.

SUPER SIX FOOTBALL WEATHER FOR TUSCALOOSA: Today will be warm; Tuscaloosa could reach the upper 70s this afternoon. Developing showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon, continuing tonight. The rain won’t be continuous, but it could be occasionally heavy, and lightning is a very real possibility. Thankfully we don’t expect any severe weather, although a strong storm is possible. Temperatures will fall into the upper 60s this evening, and the humidity levels will be high.

For the games tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, the weather will be cold and wet. Temperatures will fall into the 40s tomorrow afternoon, possibly reaching the upper 30s tomorrow evening. The sky will be cloudy with rain likely.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME IN ATLANTA: We can promise 72 degrees during the game with no rain and no wind since it is inside the Georgia Dome. For fans headed to Atlanta, Saturday will be cloudy and cool with periods of light rain; the high will be near 50 degrees.

SATURDAY IN ALABAMA: It will be cloudy and cold day with some light rain at times. We won’t get out of the 40s, and the northwest corner of the state could hold in the 30s all day.

SUNDAY: Another day with big temperature variations as a warm front will push northward. Cold air should stay over Northwest Alabama, and Northeast Alabama looks cold due to cold air damming. But, from Birmingham south and east temperatures could warm into the 60s by afternoon with the nose of warmer air moving north. Rain is likely Sunday and Sunday night, and we will have to watch for potential flooding problems as the ground will be saturated by then. Storm totals of 5 inches are possible by Monday night over parts of North Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: The rain keeps falling Monday, but it will end Monday evening as even colder air moves into the state. We might have a few snow flurries Monday night or Tuesday morning in the cold air, but they should not pose any problems. Tuesday will be cold and dry with the sky becoming partly sunny; much of North Alabama will hold in the 30s all day with a chilly north wind.

By early Wednesday, we project a low in the 17-23 degree range. But, at least the sun will be out in full force during the day Wednesday.

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I have a weather program this morning at Attalla Elementary School in Etowah County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: warm

Category: Alabama's Weather