Strong Storms Possible Later Today

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A major severe weather situation is getting ready to play out today across the Ohio Valley where SPC has outlined a high risk for severe weather. An impressive trough that is expected to become negatively tilted today will move quickly through the Ohio River Valley this afternoon and tonight. Strong southerly flow will transport good moisture northward just ahead of this trough and the combination of good shear with values with strong instability suggests the potential for discrete super cells with associated long track tornadoes. So it is going to be a very active day in the Ohio River Valley.

Further south for us, though, the picture is not quite as clear cut. The problem has several facets to it. First, we do have lots of clouds which are going to help to limit any daytime heating. Good southerly flow will still allow temperatures to climb into the lower 70s and the moisture is already here with dew points in the 60s. But we also have scattered showers moving through the area which will help to stabilize the atmosphere somewhat for the morning and early afternoon. Then timing becomes an issue. As the front arrives this evening with the greatest lift, the instability will be decreasing even as the shear goes up. So for us, the overall weather conditions just do not seem to be in proper phase for any kind of major severe weather threat. There will be some storms that could become marginally severe especially over the northwest quarter of Alabama late this afternoon and into the evening hours, in the 5 to 8 pm time frame, but the weather elements will be trending downward as the system pulls further to the north away from us. I do expect to see severe weather watches issued as well as the possibility of some warnings, but it does appear that the biggest threat in Alabama will be severe thunderstorms. Because a squall line is likely to be involved this evening, an isolated relatively brief tornado could occur.

Stay tuned to the Blog for updates on this weather situation.

We cool off somewhat into the first of the upcoming week with lows Tuesday and Wednesday morning dipping into the 30s. Highs should mainly be in the 60s after today.

We come primarily under an upper ridge for much of the week ahead, however, another strong close low and associated trough will dig into the Southwest US on Saturday and Sunday while a strong trough moves across the Great Lakes. This should drag a front into our area bringing with it chances for rain for late Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s for the latter part of the week and the weekend.

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Needless to say, there will be additional posts here during the day and evening as this potent system takes shape especially for the areas across the Ohio Valley. Remember, with thunderstorms expect the unexpected. James Spann should have the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather