Cloudy Today – Storms Possible Sunday

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After the widespread rainfall yesterday afternoon and evening, the ground is wet and fog is widespread across much of the Southeast US. The fog should lift by mid-morning and clouds are likely to stick around for much of the day. With the clouds and damp atmosphere, a few sprinkles will be possible, but I don’t think there will be much to the very light rain.

After a somewhat quiet tropical season, there is an area of disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic. While this area is non-tropical at the moment, the environment is somewhat favorable for additional development into a storm early next week. The area is forecast to move northwestward or northward, so it is not a threat to the US.

Auburn hosts Georgia at Jordan-Hare Stadium (2:30p CT kickoff), and the sky will be cloudy; we can’t rule out a brief passing shower or a patch of light rain during the game, but if rain comes it shouldn’t last long. The kickoff temperature will be near 67 degrees, falling into the lower 60s by the fourth quarter. Alabama travels to Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (6:45p CT kickoff); the sky will be cloudy with a shower possible, but not likely. Again, with the clouds a sprinkle or a little light rain is possible. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 60s during the game.

UAB is on the road; they play East Carolina in Greenville, NC, with a 1:00p CT kickoff. The sky will be mostly cloudy with a small chance of a shower. About 66 degrees at kickoff; temperatures will hold in the mid 60s through the game.

The upper trough will move briskly through the Great Lakes area on Sunday which will bring a surface front into the Southeast during the day Sunday. We are in our Fall severe weather season, and there is some potential for severe thunderstorms. The situation is not completely clear cut as you’ll see in the video. CAPE values reach into the 500 to 750 range, dew points are forecast to come up into the middle 60s – perhaps nudging the upper 60s – and shear values are above 150. However, the main dynamics with the system are well to our north which partially explains the moderate risk area forecast by SPC. Also acting against the idea of severe weather will be the extensive cloud cover with should act to limit atmospheric destabilization. So for now, this still becomes a stay tuned scenario. We will need to watch carefully for changes to the atmosphere, but for now I expect to see a line of showers with the potential for some embedded thunderstorms with only a small risk for severe storms.

The front comes through late Sunday or very early Monday morning with surface high pressure settling into the eastern US. This should usher in another round of cold air, not as cold as the last system, however, with morning lows getting down into the 30s on Wednesday morning.

The next system begins to take shape off to our west by the end of the week, however, the GFS is suggesting a rather low latitude low that may cut off in the Southwest US. This could potentially put us into a wet pattern, but this is beginning to verge into voodoo country, so we’ll focus on getting by the current system for now.

Looking ahead into voodoo country, a strong trough is forecast to move across the Central US around Thanksgiving which certainly has the potential to create travel issues and bring another round of cold weather to the eastern US for turkey day. But by the first of December, the GFS is painting a large ridge over the eastern US with a deep trough along the West Coast, so we’d be into some warmer weather to kick off December.

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I plan to post the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Sunday morning. I hope that you have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather