Rain Ending This Evening; More Rain By Sunday

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RADAR CHECK: As I write this at 3:40 this afternoon, rain has ended west of a line from Tuscaloosa to Cullman to Huntsville. The rain will end in the Birmingham metro by 4:45, and the rain over East Alabama will be over by 6:30. Meaning, of course, most high school football stadiums will be dry by kickoff time at 7:00. Temperatures are mostly in the 50s.

Lots of rainbows are showing up in the Alabama sky where the sun is returning…

(photo from Bessemer, taken by @garrettandjenna)

TOMORROW: The lead short wave, that produced the rain today, will be east of Alabama, but a fairly moist airmass will remain in place. So, expect a day with more clouds than sun, and a few widely scattered showers are possible. But, the rain won’t be widespread, and many places will miss the showers completely. And, the warming trend continues with a high between 67 and 70 degrees.

MORE RAIN SUNDAY: Sunday will be mild with a high between 70 and 75 degrees; the sky will be mostly cloudy and a few scattered showers are possible during the day. We are getting better model agreement now; looks like the most organized rain and thunderstorm activity will come from about 6:00 p.m. Sunday until 2:00 a.m. Monday.

SPC maintains a “slight risk” of severe weather in Alabama north of a line Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden, but the higher severe weather probabilities are north of Alabama.

We do note the 12Z model runs have shown an increase in dew points; pushing them into the upper 60s over North Alabama by Sunday afternoon, which will add to the instability. Surface based CAPE values are expected to be under 1,000 j/kg, but that can certainly support strong to severe storms.

Thankfully the main dynamic support remains north of Alabama, and we believe the severe weather threat is still rather marginal. But, with models trending toward higher instability values, we will need to watch the situation closely over the weekend.

Rain amounts of around 1 inch are likely over the northern half of the state. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Mostly cloudy conditions for the high school football playoff games tonight… it looks like the rain will be over in time for kickoff at most stadiums. Temperatures will fall from near 54 degrees at kickoff to near 52 degrees by the final whistle.

Tomorrow, Auburn hosts Georgia at Jordan-Hare Stadium (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly sunny; we can’t rule out a brief passing shower during the game, but if rain comes it shouldn’t last long. The kickoff temperature will be near 67 degrees, falling into the low 60s by the fourth quarter. Alabama travels to Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (6:45p CT kickoff); the sky will be mostly cloudy with a shower possible, but not likely. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 60s during the game.

UAB is on the road; they play East Carolina in Greenville, NC tomorrow (1:00p CT kickoff). The sky will be mostly cloudy with a small chance of a shower. About 66 degrees at kickoff; temperatures will hold in the mid 60s through the game.

NEXT WEEK: The sky becomes mostly sunny Monday, and the rest of the week looks cool and dry with temperatures near seasonal average for mid-November in Alabama. The coldest morning should come early Wednesday when we reach the mid 30s.

VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS is advertising a vigorous weather system in here the following weekend (November 23-24) with potential for strong to severe storms; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps. Then, our weather for now looks dry for much of Thanksgiving week.

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Salter Elementary in Talladega; be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. Brian Peters will have the video updates here tomorrow and Sunday; my next video will be posted by 7:00 Monday morning. Enjoy the weekend!

Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather