4 a.m. Update –

LATE REPORT AT 4:05
The Air Force plane has found a large area of light winds northwest of the previous center location, which indicates to me that the central circulation of Karen may be becoming less organized. In fact, the crew never transmitted a center fix, which means there may no longer be a clear circulation center.

We may be watching the system fall apart before our very eyes. The central swirl is still evident on infrared satellite pictures, but it might even be a little less defined.

Karen may be continuing to weaken. The next advisory will be at 7 a.m.

ORIGINAL POST

FAST FACTS AS OF 7 A.M. CDT
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.1N 91.3W
ABOUT 320 MILES SW OF MOBILE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

Strong convection did develop over the past 4-5 hours in our badly sheared system, but it is still far removed from the center, which is still completely exposed. Karen is still barely hanging on as a tropical storm, still with top winds of 40 mph and the official forecast does not indicate any strengthening.

The convection is quite impressive, and some stronger winds were found in it.

But there is a chance it could strengthen slightly today or tonight as it begins to come into a more favorbale upper wind pattern ahead of the approaching upper level trough.

There is also the possibility that it could fall completely apart and simply be absorbed by the trough.

The official track forecast carries it over Plaquemines Parish in Louisiana and then to near Mobile Bay lat eSunday afternoon.

The Air Force plane did find a pressure of 1007 mb at 2:32 with estimated surface winds of 39 mph, barely tropical storm force. Maximum flight level winds were 27 mph. The crew is very close to the center again in a location just north of the last center fix. They just found a flight level wind of 7 mph. They are of course, looking for a location of dead calm conditions.

FOR US IN CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY
No change to the forecast for today, with partly cloudy and warm conditions expected across Central Alabama There could be a few isolated showers over West Alabama this afternoon that could appear near Bryant-Denny Stadium, but the chance is small and they should be mainly after the game ends. Temperatures will be in the 80s there And at Auburn for the Ole Miss game at 6 p.m., the kickoff temperature will be around 81F, falling into the 70s. Almost no chance of rain, although we can’t rule out a shower by the end of the game.

SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY
A slight risk convective outlook is posted by the SPC for areas from north of Little Rock and Memphis to Indianapolis and on to Madison WI. This from the strong system that produced tornadoes last night in Nebraska and Iowa. There were 18 reports of tornadoes late yesterday afternoon and evening.

The Internationally Beloved Meteorologist, Brian Peters, will have the Weather Extreme video and discussion in about 3 hours and Brian, Ryann Stinnett and I will post frequent updates throughout the weekend as we track Karen.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Tropical