Latest Update on Karen

Tropical Storm Karen remains disorganized over the central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The latest observations from the NHC keep the winds an pressure the same, but looking at a visible satellite loop, this is not a very healthy storm. The center of circulation has been exposed most of the day, west of the main area of thunderstorms. This is because there is dry air over the western Gulf as well as the 20-25 kts winds shear impacting the storm. This shear keeps the convection away from the center of the storm which is not conducive for intensification.

The hurricane watch has been cancelled along the Gulf Coast and replaced with a tropical storm watch. This watch will be upgraded to a warning within 36 hours of landfall.

…KAREN DISORGANIZED…
…HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.9N 90.3W
ABOUT 235 MI…375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI…430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

Now most importantly, where is the storm heading? The weaker the system, the farther west the storm is expected to move because it is being steered by the westerlies. A cold front dropping south will begin to draw the system to the north and then a rapid acceleration to the northeast will occur over the weekend. The latest model guidance continues to show this occurring and actually shows that the storm could make landfall farther east than initially thought. The Florida Panhandle near Ft. Walton is where the NHC’s official track has the system making landfall Sunday afternoon. Areas along the Gulf Coast will see a lot of rain and wind this weekend, and with any land-falling tropical system, small spin-up tornadoes will be possible.

Tags: karen

Category: Alabama's Weather, Tropical