Eyes On The Gulf

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MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY: While the sky is generally cloudy across Alabama this afternoon, the radar is very quiet, and most communities remain dry with temperatures mostly in the low 80s. An upper low is passing northwest of the state, but the chance of rain is so small it really isn’t worth the mention tomorrow and Friday. We expect a mix of sun and clouds both days with a high in the low to mid 80s.

The weather looks dry for high school football games tomorrow night and Friday night; temperatures will be in the 70s.

WEEKEND WEATHER SITUATION: Let me say up front that there is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast for Alabama Saturday and Sunday since the tropical system in the Caribbean still does not have a closed low level circulation center at this time. Once we get a low level center, and good data from dropsondes in the region from research aircraft, confidence will be much higher tomorrow.

We have two players involved… an approaching cold front, supported by a mid-latitude long wave upper trough, and a potential tropical storm moving up from the Gulf of Mexico. Let’s look at the tropical situation first…

KAREN? Hurricane hunters have been in the tropical disturbance over the Caribbean this afternoon, but they could not find a closed circulation, and the system is still an open wave at this time. NHC gives it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next 48 hours, and we do expect this to become Tropical Storm Karen within 24 to 36 hours over the Gulf of Mexico.

TRACK/TIMING: It will be pulled north in response to the long wave upper trough over the middle part of North America, and should move into the Gulf Coast at some point after midnight Friday night, or during the day Saturday. There is decent agreement with tropical model output; highest landfall probabilities now are from Gulf Shores to Navarre Beach. Of course, there are outliers on both sides, but there has been good consistency in the last few model sets.

INTENSITY: All tropical models keep potential “Karen” under hurricane strength, and with the current SST state and upper air pattern, that is very reasonable. The system will probably have sustained winds in the 40-60 mph range at the time of landfall; this won’t cause much, if any, structural damage. The main risk will come from heavy rain, flooding, and rough surf. Remember, the heaviest rain will be along and east of the landfall center; rain amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Friday night through Saturday.

IMPACTS ON INLAND PARTS OF ALABAMA: The model consensus takes the circulation center from near Gulf Shores to Troy to Phenix City; the heaviest rain from “Karen” will be south of this line Saturday into Saturday night, and possibly part of the day Sunday. Cities like Atmore, Andalusia, Dothan, Ozark and Enterprise could see at least 1 to 2 inches of rain. But, over North Alabama, rain amounts would be much, much lighter in this scenario. Cities like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden would see generally 1/2 inch of rain or less.

The best chance of rain for North/Central Alabama will come Saturday night into Sunday with the cold front. Severe weather is not expected, and probably not much thunder. Rain will end late Sunday as the tropical system and front move east of Alabama.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Just a few widely scattered showers and storms today, tomorrow, and during the day Friday. But, expect increasing wind and rain Friday night and Saturday from Panama City over to Gulf Shores. A tropical storm watch could be required as early as tomorrow, and tropical storm warnings could be posted by Friday. The heaviest rain will be along and east of where the circulation center makes landfall… conditions will improve on the coast Sunday.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the Alabama/Georgia State game at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday (11:21a CT kickoff), clouds will increase, but for now we will mention only a slight risk of a shower during the game (best chance of widespread rain comes well after the final whistle). Around 80 at kickoff, with low 80s possible by the second half.

Auburn will host Ole Miss at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday evening (6:00p CT kickoff); this is a very tough call now due to the uncertainty with the tropical system. I can see a situation where there could be no rain at all, or a situation where heavy rain could become a problem. It all depends on the track of “Karen”; for now I will mention just a chance of rain during the game, and we will fine tune the forecast tomorrow.

UAB has a home game against Florida Atlantic (2:00p CT kickoff) at Legion Field; the sky will be cloudy, and for now the risk of really significant rain looks small. Temperatures will be in the 70s.

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I had a great time today seeing all the kids at Clanton Intermediate School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Tags: tropics

Category: Alabama's Weather