Tropical System To Impact Alabama This Weekend

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

DRY THROUGH FRIDAY: The short term part of the forecast today is pretty easy; showers associated with an upper low over North Louisiana will stay west of Alabama, and we look rain-free through Friday with partly sunny, warm days and fair, pleasant nights. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, with early morning lows mostly in the 60s. But, after Friday, the forecast becomes a challenge due to a potential tropical system that will be involved.

THE WEEKEND: Let’s just say up front here that confidence is high that we will have rain over the weekend at times. But, forecasting timing, and the amount of rain is very difficult since there is now a good chance a tropical system will be involved. Expect forecast changes as we get closer to the weekend.

A cold front will trail a deep surface low over the Upper Midwest, and regardless of how the tropical system behaves, we will have rain ahead of the front. And, a good chance Tropical Storm Karen will be coming up from the south. Karen is the wildcard here, and will determine how much rain falls on our state this weekend.

TIMING: I will keep the main 24 hour window for rain going from about 3:00 p.m. Saturday until 3:00 p.m. Sunday, but this could change as we get better clarity on the timing of the tropical system. I know there are many outdoor events doing on in Alabama this weekend, and there is a decent chance that Saturday morning will be dry, at least over the northern half of the state. But, rain will move up from the south by Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night, continuing into the day Sunday.

I should note the latest run of the GFS model (12Z) actually keeps showers going through Sunday night and into Monday thanks to the upper trough; we will discount that solution for now and forecast drier and cooler air for Monday.

KAREN? The disturbance over the Caribbean will be picked up by the long wave upper trough that will move into the Central U.S. later this week, and models are in good agreement the system will make landfall on the Central Gulf Coast at some point Friday night or Saturday. The GFDL model brings potential Tropical Storm Karen up into Dauphin Island, as a strong tropical storm, late Friday night. Other reliable models are farther east, with landfall over the Florida Panhandle. The GFS is an outlier to the east, with landfall south of Tallahassee.

Using a model blend, it looks like the heaviest rain associated with the tropical system will be over south and east Alabama, maybe even south and east of Montgomery. Remember, the heaviest rain will be generally along and to the east of the circulation center. Some flooding could be an issue over the southern quarter of the state by Sunday.

STRENGTH: Most of the tropical models do bring the tropical system to tropical storm strength by the time of landfall, but few ramp it up to a hurricane. SSTs are relatively warm, but upper air winds are not exactly favorable for rapid strengthening, and I would say odds are good that this remains below hurricane strength, and rain and flooding will be the biggest threats.

A tropical storm watch could be required for parts of the Central Gulf Coast by Thursday IF the system does indeed get it’s act together over the next 48 hours.

BOTTOM LINE: There is a good bit of uncertainty concerning this, so just keep an eye on the blog for forecast changes as the weekend gets closer so you can make appropriate plans. Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

NEXT WEEK: Cooler and drier air blows into Alabama by Tuesday and Wednesday; still a chance we see lows in the 40s early Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: No rain for the high school football games Thursday and Friday night; temperatures will be mostly in the 70s.

For the Alabama/Georgia State game at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday (11:21a CT kickoff), clouds will increase, but for now we will mention only a small risk of a shower during the game (best chance of widespread rain comes after the final whistle). Temperatures should be in the upper 70s at kickoff, possibly reaching the low 80s by the second half.

Auburn will host Ole Miss at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday evening (6:00p CT kickoff); I think we have to mention a decent chance of rain at times, and if the tropical system makes landfall Saturday morning, heavy rain could become a very real possibility. We will be much more specific in coming days; temperatures should be in the 70s during the game.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Just a few scattered showers and storms through Friday, but expect increasing wind and rain by Friday night and Saturday as potential Tropical Storm Karen approaches the coast. A tropical storm warning will most likely be needed for parts of the coast by Friday. Weather conditions begin to improve on the coast Sunday, and especially early next week as drier air rolls in.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with the 5th graders at Good Hope Elementary School in Cullman County today… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather