Dry Through Friday; Rain Returns This Weekend

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EYE ON THE TROPICS: No doubt the weekend will be wet at times around here, and that is the focus since a tropical system could be involved. But, in the short term, confidence is high that the rest of the week will be rain-free across the great state of Alabama, with partly sunny, warm days and fair pleasant nights.

We begin the month of October with some cool 50s over Northeast Alabama; Vic Bell up at Black Creek reports 54 degrees in Etowah County; Fort Payne is at 55 at daybreak. We warm into the low 80s today, and highs tomorrow through Friday will be in the low to mid 80s. Any showers should remain west of Alabama near the Mississippi River thanks to a weak disturbance aloft over Louisiana.

The weather looks fine for high school football games across the state Thursday and Friday night with no rain and pleasant temperatures.

WEEKEND WETNESS: A strong surface low will move from Nebraska to Minnesota Saturday, dragging a cold front down this way. We will deal with rain ahead of the front, and there is a real chance the rain could be enhanced by a tropical low moving in from the south.

As you might expect at this early phase of the game, there are timing differences in the models. The ECMWF (European) is actually a little faster than the GFS, and brings the rain into Alabama Saturday morning, but for now we will continue to ride with the GFS and the GEM (Canadian). We believe the primary 24 hour window for rain will come from 3:00 p.m. Saturday until 3:00 p.m. Sunday. And, if a tropical low is involved, the rain could be widespread, and maybe even heavy at times. Rain amounts of around one inch are likely, with potential for more if the tropical system rides along the front.

It will be a very close call for the Alabama/Georgia State game in Tuscaloosa… kickoff is at 11:21a CT, and while there is a chance the rain holds off until the final whistle, there is no guarantee the game will be dry. And, for the Auburn/Ole Miss game Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff), rain is a real possibility. But, we will be much more specific with these football forecasts tomorrow.

NEXT WEEK: Cooler and drier air blows into Alabama early next week. Highs drop into the mid 70s, and a good chance lows will be in the 40s early Tuesday; the coolest air so far this season.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Jerry will stay in the Central Atlantic far from land in coming days. The system to watch is the one over the Caribbean. Models have now made a big adjustment, and almost all of them show this system being pulled northward in response to the big upper trough moving through the Central U.S. There is a chance this can become better organized in the days ahead, perhaps becoming Tropical Storm Karen in the Gulf of Mexico. Odds do not favor this reaching hurricane strength, but the threat of heavy rain is a real possibility somewhere across the Southeast U.S.

We just can’t be specific now since the system is disorganized and just getting on the board. But, clearly now this could be an issue for Alabama this weekend, perhaps giving parts of the state a heavy rain threat. Stay tuned.

GULF COAST WEATHER: We project about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine each day through Friday from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, with scattered showers and storms possible. Then, the weather turns wet this weekend with occasional showers and thunderstorms likely late Saturday into Sunday. The rain could be heavy, and surf very rough, all depending on the system in the Caribbean we mentioned (potential Tropical Storm Karen).

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I will be doing a weather program today at Good Hope Elementary School in Cullman County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather