Warm And Mostly Dry

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WARM SEPTEMBER WEATHER: I often hear from people asking when will “really cool fall weather” arrive. Generally they are looking for the first cold front that will bring our temperatures down into the 40s; in Alabama the average low doesn’t fall below 60 degrees until September 26, and it doesn’t fall below 50 until October 20, so you will have to wait a while. Our weather in early September is almost always warm, if not hot. But, we do expect some cooler air to slip in here this weekend. Read on…

Not much change around here through mid-week; partly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated afternoon showers. Afternoon highs will hold in the 88-92 degree range, much like recent days.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A cold front will push through our state Friday, but moisture will be very limited, and showers should be scattered in nature, so rain will be light and spotty. Then, a nice continental airmass moves into the state Friday night, so the weekend looks very nice. Saturday promises to be a sunny day with lower humidity and a high only between 80 and 84. The 00Z GFS shows a dry scenario for Sunday with a high in the low 80s; clearly we will see some 50s early Sunday morning, especially over Northeast Alabama. We do note other runs have shown a moisture return Sunday with some risk of showers, but for now the risk looks low, and most of the weekend should be rain-free.

TROPICS: Gabrielle came back to life last night with sustained winds near 40 mph this morning, and it will move very close to Bermuda as a tropical storm in about 24 hours or so. It will then turn northeast, possibly impacting the Canadian maritimes this weekend.

Humberto is nearing hurricane strength in the far East Atlantic with sustained winds of 65 mph. It should become a hurricane later today or tomorrow, and will be forced northward in the short term. It will bend back to the west in the open Atlantic in about 4-5 days, but then it will be forced northward again and is no threat to land.

And, a tropical wave over the western Caribbean has a decent chance of becoming Tropical Storm Ingrid late this week, with potential landfall on the Northeast Mexico coast below Brownsville, Texas late this weekend. It could bring heavy rain to parts of South and East Texas by Sunday and early next week.

For those traveling to College Station, Texas for Saturday’s Alabama-Texas A&M football game, the weather looks hot and dry with mid 90s possible Saturday afternoon; any rain from potential Tropical Storm Ingrid won’t arrive there until Monday of next week.

GULF COAST WEATHER: No tropical trouble for the Central Gulf Coast for at least the next 5-7 days… about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily through the weekend from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, with only a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 86 degrees.

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I will be doing a safety program today at Protective Life in Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: warm

Category: Alabama's Weather