Refreshing Morning

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ALMOST LIKE FALL: The dry air over the northern half of Alabama is helping temperatures drop to unusually low levels for mid-August… a few 5:00 a.m. reports…

Russellville 55
Courtland 57
Cullman 58
Decatur 59
Huntsville 59
Black Creek (near Gadsden) 61

Dry air covers roughly the northern half of the state, but showers/storms continue along the stalled surface boundary near U.S. 80… and a flash flood warning is up for Lee County until 7:00 a.m. One observer reports just over five inches of rain near Opelika since midnight, and some roads in Lee County are impassable due to high water.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW: The front to the south will fizzle out, and moisture levels will slowly rise over North Alabama. So, we will bring back the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms statewide. The rain won’t be continuous, but a shower could come at just about any time, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures remain below average, with a high in the low to mid 80s both days.

OUR WEEKEND: Looks like the tropical system won’t directly impact Alabama, so for the weekend we will mention just a few passing showers and storms Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds both days. While the best chance of rain will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out the risk of a late night or morning shower. The high will be in the 83 to 86 degree range for most communities.

NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS is coming in drier for at least the first half of next week with warmer air aloft; looks like only widely scattered showers or storms Monday through Wednesday, with highs back in the 87 to 90 degree range. Still below average for August, but warmer than recent days.

GULF COAST WEATHER: The good news is that it now looks like a tropical depression or storm won’t directly impact the Central Gulf Coast (see the tropical discussion below). But, you will still have to dodge rain from time to time. For today and tomorrow, about 3 to 5 hours of sunshine from Panama City over to Gulf Shores with scattered showers and storms. Moisture levels will be deeper over the weekend; 2 to 4 hours of sun Saturday and Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 83 degrees.

TROPICS: First off, in the far East Atlantic, we have newly formed Tropical Storm Erin. It is moving west/northwest, and will be fighting dry air, so it is not expected to reach hurricane strength. This is far from land, and it remains to be seen if it will recurve over the open Atlantic, or impact the Lesser Antilles.

The one we are watching closely is the wave moving into the Yucatan Peninsula and the southern Gulf of Mexico. The system remains disorganized this morning, and models are converging on a solution that takes this west, toward the coast of Mexico. Still a decent chance this becomes a tropical depression or storm, but harsh winds aloft will keep this from becoming a hurricane, and the main threat to land will come from heavy rain and flooding. For now the threat to the Central Gulf Coast and Alabama looks small. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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I will be doing a weather safety program this morning at the Federal Courthouse in Tuscaloosa, and then will be at the Realty South 10-K drawing for lunch in Hoover… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: scattered showers

Category: Alabama's Weather