Showers Continue

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Diurnally driven showers continue to be the primary weather concern for Central Alabama as an upper ridge maintains a hold on the overall pattern. A stationary front lying just to the north across Tennessee and Kentucky continued to be a focus for training storms. As noted in the video, our air mass remains quite moisture laden, so isolated flash flooding continues to be a concern for Alabama as isolated storms can produce 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour.

The upper ridge weakens somewhat by Monday as a strong short wave digs into the Great Lakes and helps to sharpen up the trough over the eastern US. We should stay in the daily shower pattern through Tuesday, however, as the trough sharpens at midweek, we will see a cold front push into the Southeast US in the Thursday-Friday time frame. So it appears that Wednesday/Thursday could see showers and thunderstorms with the possibility of some drier air entering the area on the Thursday/Friday time frame. This could bring a break in the showers and storms by Thursday and Friday. As we’ve seen much of this summer, the timing of these fronts and the presence of the drier air depend on the overall motion of the pattern, so I’m giving it a broad brush on timing for now until we get closer to the event occurring.

The next couple of days will see a good supply of showers and with their slow movement we remain susceptible to isolated flash flood threat. One shower a couple of days ago dropped about half an inch in about 10 minutes in my gauge. Temperatures will remain around 90 for highs for the next couple of days while we will drop into the upper 80s with the presence of more clouds on Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of the front. GFS MOS guidance values indicate a potential drop in dew points into the mid or lower 60s by the end of the week, and that will feel nice getting rid of some of the high moisture content we’ve currently seeing.

Beach weather not much different from Central Alabama with daily showers and highs around 90. Certainly do not expect a washout but showers will likely interrupt the day.

No organized severe weather areas on the SPC Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. And the tropics remain quiet as we approach the climatological peak in the hurricane season.

A peek into voodoo country shows the eastern US trough being maintained, so there still remains no sign of any severe heat.

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Besides the flash flood threat, be sure to be wise about lightning. We’ve seen a number of fires over the last couple of weeks caused by the lightning. I expect to have the next video posted on Sunday morning by 8 am or so. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather