Dry Air Short Lived

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North and Central Alabama enjoyed a bit of a break in the somewhat wet pattern for the summer of 2013 yesterday as a weak front, actually mostly a wind shift, with slightly dryer air coming into the northern half of the state. But the dry air will be short lived as moisture returns today and tonight setting the stage for another wet-ish day on Sunday. The boundary between dry air and moist air was pretty well defined on the surface chart this morning between Birmingham and Montgomery. South Alabama was in the moist air with dew points in the lower 70s while Central and North Alabama saw dew points in the low and middle 60s. So for today, it looks like the best rain chances will come across South Alabama but Central Alabama will be transitioning as moisture increases today and tonight. See the precipitable water chart in the video.

Aloft at 500 millibars, an upper low will retrograde today and tonight from its current position over southern Indiana to West Texas by Monday. At the surface, the moisture returns on a good east-southeast flow. A weak area of low pressure over the Northeast Gulf will help to enhance showers and thunderstorms Sunday but also help to keep temperatures in the lower and mid 80s due to rain and cloud cover. Organized severe weather will be confined to the North Central US today through Monday with the main westerlies pushed north.

The pattern returns to a more typical summer-like one by Monday as an upper ridge settles in over Ohio and returns the Southeast US to the routine of heat-driven scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. This will bring temperatures back to seasonal values as we get back into the 90 to 94 range for afternoon highs.

Not much change in the overall pattern through the end of the week as the upper ridge also migrates slowly westward. But by next Friday and Saturday the pattern begins to shift once again as a strong upper low carves out another trough over the eastern half of the country. The trough becomes the main feature as we move into voodoo country at last through about the 24th. But once again, the upper ridge builds into the eastern US with a substantial heat bubble over the Central Plains.

Tropics are somewhat quiet. There is a weak low pressure area in the Northeast Gulf that will be bringing a good deal of rain to the Southeast over the next two days. And the remains of Chantal were in the Bahamas producing disorganized showers mainly northeast of the Bahamas. Little development of this system is expected as it moves slowly northward.

Beach goers along the Alabama coast will see scattered showers today with a moderate risk for rip currents. Showers will increase in coverage on Sunday as showers become likely. High temperatures mainly in the middle 80s.

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I hope you have a good day. I’ll be posting the next Weather Xtreme Video by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather