Summer Rain For The Fourth

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COOL, WET INDEPENDENCE DAY: I highly doubt we get out of the 70s today and tomorrow over North/Central Alabama thanks to clouds and occasional rain; we all know that sizzling heat is usually the story this time of the year for the Deep South.

The overall synoptic setup remains favorable for a big summer rain event through tomorrow, with a deep moisture axis over Alabama (precipitable water values 2″ or greater), and a significant long wave upper trough to the west providing dynamic support. We have a good bit of rain on radar early this morning, and we will forecast periods of rain and thunderstorms through tomorrow. The NAM is printing 2.85″ for Birmingham through 84 hours… and the NWS continues a flash flood watch for Central and East Alabama through tomorrow; this is for places generally along and east of I-65.

A few strong storms are possible, but severe weather isn’t likely since the air will be cool and stable for early July thanks to the clouds and rain. But, remember all summer storms pack lots of lightning.

FIREWORKS TONIGHT: There is no skill in giving start and stop times for the rain at specific places, so no way of knowing exactly who gets the rain tonight at 9:00 when the shows are scheduled, but the chance of any one spot getting wet at that hour is around 60 percent based on model output statistics.

OUR WEEKEND: Showers and storms remain likely Saturday as deep moisture remains over Alabama, but they should thin out just a bit Sunday as dynamic support weakens. Still, you will have to dodge a few showers and storms Sunday. The high Saturday will be in the low 80s, followed by mid 80s Sunday. Best chance of seeing some decent intervals of sunshine will come on Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: We slowly revert back to a more typical summer pattern, but moisture levels will remain somewhat elevated for summer. We will deal with at least scattered showers and storms each day, with a slow warming trend. We will probably touch 90 degrees at some point Wednesday or Thursday… the last time we had a 90 degree high was back on June 30.

AT THE BEACH: Soaking rains continue this morning at places like Destin and Panama City, rain is likely along the Central Gulf through tomorrow. The rain won’t be continuous, and you might see a few peeks of sun, but the rain could be heavy at times, and flash flooding is possible.

Showers and storms will remain likely on the coast Saturday, but weather conditions will slowly improve on a day to day basis Sunday and into next week with increasing amounts of sun and fewer showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s, and sea water temperatures are generally in the low 80s.

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Next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here early tomorrow morning… but I will have some forecast notes this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather