Moist Air Blankets Alabama

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EARLY MORNING STORMS: A line of strong storms has been moving south across North Alabama during the pre-dawn hours… they are very noisy with lots of lightning, but they have remained under severe limits with wind gusts generally in the 35-45 mph range (winds have to exceed 58 mph to be severe). The storms are moving into the Birmingham metro area as I write this around 5:45 a.m…. but they are moving steadily to the south and will be out of here soon.

LATER TODAY: Additional showers and storms should form this afternoon and early tonight; SPC has areas generally south and east of Birmingham in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather… storms this afternoon and early tonight could produce strong winds in a few spots. The sun will be out at times today and the high will be at or just over 90 in most spots.

TOMORROW: No formal severe weather risk, but SPC has all of Alabama in the low end 5 percent severe weather circle as once again strong storms will likely form in the unstable, moist air. The NAM and the GFS hint we might make a run at the mid 90s, and we do reach that the afternoon storms tomorrow could pack quite a punch. The morning tomorrow should feature a good supply of sunshine.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will keep a chance of scattered showers/storms going both days, but the deeper moisture will shift a little east of south of here late in the weekend, so shower could become more widely spaced Sunday. The sun will be out occasionally, and the highs should drop into the mid to upper 80s thanks to a nice long wave upper trough forming over the eastern half of the nation.

We note a strong upper high over the western U.S. will bring record heat to cites like Phoenix; they will be close to 120 degrees tomorrow afternoon…. within two degrees of their all time high.

NEXT WEEK: Temperatures will be below average for much of the Southeast U.S. thanks to the upper trough; highs should stay in the 80s. Each day we will forecast a mix of sun and clouds, and a few scattered showers or storms are possible. No skill in trying to forecast specific coverage or timing of the showers now, but we don’t expect any “wash-out” kind of rain… just be ready to dodge summer showers.

AT THE BEACH: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day for the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through Sunday with the usual chance of scattered showers and storms. Moisture levels will be higher next week, so for now it looks like 4-6 hours of sun daily with scattered showers and storms becoming more numerous. The good news is that the tropics are quiet, and models for now are not showing any tropical mischief in the Gulf.

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I am at the American Meteorological Society conference on broadcast meteorology in Nashville… won’t be able to produce an afternoon video today due to travel, but we will get back to the two a day schedule tomorrow… enjoy the day!

Tags: storms

Category: Alabama's Weather