Showers Today Will Be Widely Spaced

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MUGGY SUMMER WEATHER: A blanket of moist air will cover Alabama through Friday; that means some spots could see a brief passing shower or storm this afternoon, but most of the high resolution models keep the state dry. The high today should be close to 90 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds.

TO THE NORTH: An MCS (mesoscale convective system) will drop southward through Kentucky and Tennessee tonight, and SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather up in that region. The high resolution NAM model shows those storms moving into Alabama early tomorrow morning, in the 4-7 a.m. time frame. While the storms could be severe as they move down through Tennessee, they should weaken as they arrive in Alabama, and we don’t expect any severe weather issues here.

But, clearly we will need to mention a pretty decent chance of showers and storms tomorrow, and then again on Friday, as an upper trough forms over the eastern U.S. and heights come down. The rain won’t be continuous, and the sun will be out at times, but both tomorrow and Friday will feature a better than 50/50 chance of any one spot getting wet at least a time or two.

We will also need to keep an eye for a few strong storms on Friday; SPC has low end severe weather probabilities up for Alabama.

OUR WEEKEND: Models are not in very good agreement. The 00Z GFS all of a sudden tries to bring drier air into the northern half of Alabama, with few, if any showers around here Saturday and Sunday. The deeper moisture will be over the southern counties. We won’t remove the risk of scattered showers for now… let’s keep an eye on model trends and we can make adjustments as needed. We will mention the chance of widely scattered showers and storms Saturday and Sunday with a high around 90 degrees along with mixed sun and clouds.

NEXT WEEK: Lots of questions about the week with the Fourth of July on the board. The general idea is that a pretty moist airmass will be over the Deep South, meaning the chance of at least scattered, and possibly numerous, showers and storms on a daily basis along with highs only in the mid to upper 80s.

TROPICS: Tropical storm formation is not expected in the Atlantic basin through Friday. The GFS is not showing any tropical mischief in the Gulf next week, although a good plume of tropical moisture will move slowly into the Gulf Coast region.

AT THE BEACH: You will have the risk of scattered showers and storms from Panama City to Gulf Shores for the next 7-10 days, but that is very routine for summer. We expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through Sunday; some evidence the amount of sun might drop a bit next week as moisture levels rise, but too early to be really specific. The good news is that medium range computer model guidance isn’t showing any tropical storm development for now. Daily highs will be mostly in the upper 80s along the immediate coast, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 84 degrees.

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I will be in Nashville later today for the AMS conference on broadcast meteorology… I will be speaking at 10:30, and looking forward to seeing many friends in our science. Not sure I will be able to crank out an afternoon video, but I will post some forecast notes here this afternoon by 4:00. Enjoy the day!

Tags: humid

Category: Alabama's Weather