Humid Days; Scattered Showers/Storms

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GOOD OLE SUMMERTIME: Summer in Alabama means heat, humidity, and scattered storms just about every day without too many exceptions, and those elements will certainly be in the forecast through the rest of the week. Actually heat levels aren’t that bad for late June; some spots yesterday never made it past the mid 80s since showers developed early in the day. We figure the high will be pretty close to 90 degrees every afternoon through Friday.

In terms summer rain, everybody knows we (meteorologists) have a very limited skill set in forecasting placement, coverage, and timing of the daily dose of scattered showers and storms. For today, tomorrow, and Thursday, we will pretty much do the ole “broad brush” and go with the standard one in three risk of any one spot seeing a shower or storm. We do note the high resolution NAM model, which is pretty decent in summer, looks pretty dry statewide tomorrow with few, if any showers. But, with very high PW (precipitable water) values, a shower popping up in spots is certainly possible.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A rather high amplitude pattern forms over North America, with an intense upper ridge over the Southwest U.S., and a downstream upper trough over the eastern states. Under that upper high, Phoenix should easily see 115 degrees, but under the trough cool, refreshing air will be in place over the Great Lakes and parts of the Upper Midwest.

Here in Alabama, we should see an increase in the number of showers and storms Friday and Saturday as the boundary representing the leading edge of the cooler, continental air slowly approaches from the north. We expect scattered to numerous showers and storms both days with a high between 86 and 90.

Showers should begin to thin out a bit Sunday, but still no doubt we could be wet at times with a few passing showers, especially over the southern two-thirds of Alabama. Drier air will begin to nose into the Tennessee Valley.

NEXT WEEK: It is very hard to get drier air in here in July (Monday is the first day of the month), but the anomalous upper air pattern could help to bring lower humidity levels to at least some part of North Alabama Monday and Tuesday, with the scattered showers and storms limited to the southern counties of the state. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and the maps and graphics.

TROPICS: All is quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the week.

AT THE BEACH: Pretty routine weather will continue from Panama City west to Gulf Shores this week. Each day, expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine with the usual risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 84 degrees.

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Tags: humid

Category: Alabama's Weather