A Few Strong Storms Later Today

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RADAR CHECK: At daybreak we have a scattered showers over the northern half of Alabama; some heavier rain was falling over Lamar and Marion Counties. Temperatures are generally in the 60s, and the sky is mostly cloudy.

THE DAY AHEAD: Our friends at SPC (the Storm Prediction Center) have a small part of Northwest Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather later today and tonight… the risk extends westward into Mississippi.

No doubt we will have a pretty good chance of showers and storms later today and tonight thanks to an upper short wave just north and west of the state; this is what is left of the upper low that brought the tornado outbreak to Texas Wednesday night. It will weaken with time, but the upper support clearly means a decent chance of getting wet at times.

In terms of the severe weather potential, the air over Alabama will be moderately unstable later today, with surface based CAPE values in the 1500-2500 j/kg range, with the higher values over West Alabama this afternoon. Bulk shear values are not overly impressive, so I really don’t think we have much of a tornado threat, but it is certainly not zero. The primary threat will come from hail and strong gusty winds, and the main severe weather window will come from about 2:00 until 9:00 p.m. The greatest chance of seeing a severe storm in Alabama will be north of I-20, and west of I-65. We will watch radar trends closely.

The rain will end from northwest to southeast tonight as the short wave moves northeast and continues to weaken. Today’s high should be in the low 80s.

WEEKEND WEATHER: A moist and somewhat unstable airmass will remain over Alabama this weekend, meaning the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue. There are many, many outdoor events planned across our state, and unfortunately the state of the science doesn’t allow us to give you a specific start/stop time of the rain for any specific point due to the random nature of the showers and storms.

The chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow is about one in three, with the odds lowering to about one in four Sunday. While the best chance of showers and storms this weekend will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a late night or morning storm. In fact, the high resolution 4km NAM shows a few strong storms forming around here during the pre-dawn hours Sunday.

The sun will be out at times tomorrow and Sunday, and highs will be generally in the mid 80s. Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video to see the maps, graphics, and get more details about weekend weather.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday should be very warm and dry thanks to an upper ridge building across the Deep South; highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range making it the warmest weather so far this year. A few showers are possible late Wednesday into Thursday, and the 00Z GFS brings in drier air into North Alabama Friday.

LET’S GO TO THE BEACH: Fantastic weather for those of you headed to the Hangout Music Festival at Gulf Shores, or any other place east to Panama City. Sunny days, fair nights through early next week. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 70s, with 80s just a mile or two inland. Sea water temperatures are running mostly in the low to mid 70s.

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My last school weather program of the 2012-13 school year is this morning… I will be at Saks Elementary School in Calhoun County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Tags: showers

Category: Alabama's Weather