Warmer Days Through Mid-Week

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NICE AFTERNOON: The sky is generally sunny across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures in the 70s. Tomorrow’s forecast is the easiest of the week… lots of sun with a warm afternoon; we should rise into the 81-85 degree range giving the day a summer-like feel. Beyond that, lots of questions…

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Moisture begins to return along with rising humidity levels. I think we will need to introduce the chance of “widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms”… much like the words we use daily during the summer. The rain won’t be really widespread, and any showers should end once the sun goes down. The high both days will be near 80 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Quite a challenging forecast due to the forecast formation of a deep, cold core upper low west of Alabama. You know the deal… cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe. These are very tricky.

The new model runs have the upper low anywhere from Texarkana, AR to near Kansas City, MO. But, clearly the idea is that the deep ULL will set up west of Alabama, which will mean cool and unsettled weather for Alabama.

Periods of mostly light rain are likely Friday and Saturday, but the rain probably won’t be especially heavy, and there will be some decent breaks in the wet weather. Our high will drop to near 70 Friday, and there is a good chance we won’t get out of the 60s Saturday with clouds and occasional rain.

The new GFS run pushes the upper low right over North Alabama Sunday evening. A dry slot could mean sunshine Sunday morning, but the cold air aloft associated with the upper low will make for a very unstable atmosphere, and afternoon showers are likely. Due to the cold air aloft, some hail is very possible, if not likely, in the showers (even with no lightning/thunder). The weather will stay cool Sunday with a high in the upper 60s.

The good news is that idea of a late season frost/freeze this weekend is still off the table for now.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Not much change from our thinking this morning. Periods of rain are possible Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Not a total wash-out, and a decent chance they get qualifying and the races in. But, rain delays are a very real possibility. Heat won’t be a problem this year… temperatures will have a very hard time getting out of the 60s all three days. Coolest morning will come early Sunday with upper 40s possible…

NEXT WEEK: The GFS keeps us in the wraparound moisture Monday, so showers are still possible with a high between 67 and 70. The weather should slowly trend drier and warmer toward the middle of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Centreville Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather