Cloudy, Wet, Downright Messy

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Today marks two years since the generational tornado event of April 27, 2011, so be sure to take a look at James’ excellent post below. This was a spectacular day for many of us.

For the next couple of days, it looks clouds and rain with an embedded thunderstorm will be the general rule. For today, it appears likely that much of the rain and storms will stay to the north of the Birmingham area, generally in the Tennessee River Valley area. But even if you don’t get rain you will remain cloudy. Nice Skycam shot of the sunrise at Dauphin Island. The unsettled weather is being brought to us by an upper level trough located over the Central Plains. A surface low associated with the upper trough was situation near the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

The upper system will slowly move across the Mississippi River Sunday and should be approaching the East Coast by midday on Monday. This should bring the bulk of the rain and thunderstorms to Central Alabama on Sunday. Rainfall amounts are likely to be quite varied due to the nature of the precipitation, but due to both slow movement and the potential for the training of echoes, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely with some higher amounts possible. We’ve been dry for the last several days and the last rainfall event was pretty light, so I don’t believe that this system poses a serious flash flood concern.

SPC has a slight risk area identified across northern Mississippi, a small part of Northwest Alabama, part of West Tennessee, and the southeast quadrant of Arkansas. While there is some risk for isolated storms with damaging wind and large hail the big threat, I think the overall conditions are marginal and I only expect to see a few severe thunderstorm warnings. But we always keep our eyes on even the marginal situations.

With the upper trough to our east, we come under slight ridging Monday and Tuesday so I think we should dry out with a mix of sun and clouds. The cold front that comes through Sunday and early Monday will likely make a comeback late Tuesday and into Wednesday so shower chances return then. For now, I think we stay dry for those two days.

But a new upper level storm system begins to take shape on Wednesday, and this one promises to bring winter back as we enter May. Confidence in the idea of much colder weather is fairly high, but model differences bring some uncertainties, too. The GFS digs a trough into the Central Plains states on Thursday, and that trough intensifies on Friday and closes off. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show the same general pattern, but they are quite difference in locations. The GFS closes the upper low off in the vicinity of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. But the ECMWF positions the upper low much further west. For now, I’m inclined to lean more toward the GFS location. This brings thickness values below 5400 meters into Arkansas and eventually Alabama. This could mean that we see some exceptionally cold days for the early part of May around the 3rd and 4th. The record low for May 4th is 36 at Birmingham, and we could see temperatures coming close to that value. Should the ECMWF be correct in the location of the upper low, then the bulk of the really cold air would be further west, but we would still be chilly.

Precipitation chances should be high on Thursday and Friday, and with the GFS solution, we should see the rain out of here for the weekend. It’s just going to be chilly!!

Looking into voodoo country, the GFS keeps the trough over the eastern half of the country through about the 7th. Weak ridging occurs around the 9th, but by the 11th we’re seeing yet another fairly substantial trough dig into the Central US. So no lack of action in our weather pattern. The good thing about the deep trough in early May, it should suppress any severe weather chances.

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Thanks for tuning into the Blog. Be sure to check back often for updates on the current situation as well as updates on the really chilly start to May that we’re watching. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted first thing on Sunday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather