Rain Moves In Later Today

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VERY ACTIVE PATTERN: Clouds will thicken across Alabama today ahead of a very messy winter storm across the nation’s mid-section. Amazing to see the radar this morning… lots of convective snow (snow with thunder and lightning) over Kansas as I write this, with freezing rain and thunder down into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. To the west, SPC maintains their “slight risk” of severe weather for much of Louisiana into Southwest Mississippi, but the storms should weaken as they move into a more stable airmass over the northern half of Alabama.

Rain will spread into North Alabama from west to east this afternoon, becoming widespread tonight. There could be a little thunder in spots, but no severe weather is expected around here. Rain amounts of about 1/2 inch look likely; some spots could get a little more. Not enough to create flash flooding problems.

TOMORROW: The rain should end for the I-20/59 corridor (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden) during the early morning hours, while the rain continues much of the day across South Alabama, where a strong to severe storm will be possible by afternoon. But, around here, much of the day tomorrow should be dry, but the sky will stay mostly cloudy.

Tomorrow night a wave of low pressure will track along the stalled boundary just south of here, and the big rain shield will creep northward. The rain tomorrow night could reach I-20, but areas north of Birmingham will stay dry.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: For the northern counties of Alabama, Saturday looks dry; morning clouds should give way to a little afternoon sun with a high in the low 60s. But, if you are in South Alabama, rain will continue through a pretty good part the day as the wet pattern continues there.

Sunday will be dry statewide; we expect a good supply of sunshine along with a high in the mid to upper 60s.

SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY? SPC has introduced a severe weather for the southern 3/4 of Alabama Monday as yet another dynamic system approaches. I think the ECMWF solution is correct; it depicts a deep surface low over Missouri with rain and storms likely statewide. As is usually the case in February, the big question involves instability. The GFS isn’t too bullish on unstable air north of Montgomery, but I get the idea the model is not aggressive enough with the return of warm, unstable air. We will mention the chance of strong to severe storms in the forecast Monday, and we can be much specific about the threat as we get closer.

Tuesday and Wednesday of next week look cool and dry, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

VOODOO LAND THOUGHTS: Still looks sharply colder about the time March gets here; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, details, and graphics.

STORM ALERT 2013 COMING TO CLANTON TONIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues through February. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011 generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather, and have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. Here are the remaining Storm Alert tour dates…

TONIGHT… February 21 Clanton – Jeff State Performing Arts Center
February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School

All shows begin at 6:30… be sure and get there early to get a good seat.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Won’t be able to post an afternoon video again today due to the travel schedule, but I will have some forecast notes here later. Enjoy the day…

Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather