Severe Storms Likely Early Wednesday Morning
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WARMING UP: On the maps this morning a deep upper trough is over the western U.S… and ahead of that a southerly breeze will bring mild air up into Alabama. We rise well into the 60s today, and a high in the low to mid 70s is likely tomorrow; the record high for January 29 is 78, so we won’t quite get there, but temperatures will still be about 20 degrees above average. Low level moisture levels will slowly rise, and I guess a sprinkle or a shower is possible through tomorrow, but most places will be generally dry.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: Take a minute or two and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the graphics and maps that go along with this discussion….
Severe storms will break out tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night west of the state; SPC has the broad area from East and North Texas through Illinois and parts of Indiana in the standard “slight risk”, with an enhanced 30 percent severe weather probability centered on Arkansas as the big upper trough begins large scale ascent over the region.
Here are our thoughts on the Alabama threat…
TIMING: Severe storms could begin over the northwest corner of our state by midnight tomorrow night, but the core threat will come from about 3:00 a.m. until 10:00 a.m. Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon all of the storms will be over Southeast Alabama.
THREATS: Clearly the primary threat here will come from strong, perhaps damaging straight line winds along the QLCS (quasi linear convective system, what us old timers used to call a squall line). We note winds at 850 mb (around 5,000 feet… the low level jet) will be screaming, around 70-80 knots, and it won’t take much to transfer than down to the surface. Even ahead of the QLCS winds will gust to 30/40 mph with no rain falling. This will be sufficient to knock down trees and power lines along the line of storms, so be sure and “batten down the hatches” tomorrow night.
In addition to the threat of damaging winds, a few tornadoes are certainly possible, but that threat is more uncertain. Thankfully, the line of storms will be coming through during the early morning hours when the air is most stable, and it seems like the highest low level shear values are slightly out of phase with the best lift. But, clearly we will have the risk of a few isolated tornadoes in any discrete cells that form ahead of the line early Wednesday, and within the line itself, especially where there are breaks or “kinks”.
The line of storms will move quickly, and rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are possible, but that won’t be enough to cause any significant flooding issues.
CALL TO ACTION: Since the threat of severe weather will come when many are asleep, it is important to have a good, working, and properly programmed NOAA Weather Radio in your home so you won’t miss the warnings. Beyond that, smart phone apps, services like WeatherCall, etc are excellent. But, NEVER rely on a siren to hear a warning anytime, especially in the middle of the night. No doubt many have died in our state due to the “siren mentality”.
Also, review your severe weather plan, and have a readiness kit. Review our three step “do you have a plan” guidance on the ABC 33/40 site here.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Colder air returns to Alabama on these two days with a good supply of sunshine. Not sure we will get out of the 40s Thursday, and the high Friday afternoon should be in the 50s. A light freeze seems likely early Thursday and Friday morning.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Looks mostly dry; a weak cold front should come through in dry fashion Saturday night with a new surge of dry air for Sunday. Temperatures will be very seasonal; highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s. We stay dry into early next week as well.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce tonight’s show at a special time… 7:30pm CST. You can watch live here.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I will be doing a weather program today at Wilsonville Elementary School in Shelby County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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