Storms by Mid-week

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A cold front was moving through southern Alabama this morning with some low clouds and fog across the area. Much of the fog will burn off shortly after sunrise. Some patchy light rain was also occurring along the front mainly over southern Alabama. Clouds will stick around for much of the day with a few peeks at the sun possible this afternoon. Temperatures in spite of the front will climb into the mid and upper 50s.

An upper ridge promises us dry weather through Tuesday as temperatures climb into the 60s. The warming will come about thanks to the surface high situated over the Southwest Atlantic on Tuesday and the tightening of the pressure gradient over the Southeast as a surface low develops and moves through the Central Plains states. As the upper trough comes into the Lower Mississippi River Valley late Tuesday and into Wednesday, we are likely to see the development of a squall line ahead of that front. Current model data suggests that we could see a fairly widespread severe weather event with damaging wind the primary threat. Deep layer moisture along with good atmospheric warming will produce a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. CAPE values will like reach the 200 to 500 joules per kilogram values and surface dew points are projected to reach into the 60s with highs in the lower 70s for Central Alabama. While damaging wind will be the primary threat, squall lines can also produce isolated tornadoes.

There still remains a little difference in the model solutions primarily associated with timing. However, SPC has included much of the northern two thirds of Alabama in the Day 5 risk area. I’m sure there will be a focus on how this situation plays out over the next several days.

The front moves through by late Wednesday opening us to a nice cool down though nothing really extreme – we simply return to values at or slight below typical temperature values for this time of year. An upper ridge works its way into the Central Plains by next Saturday keeping us dry with passing clouds from time to time.

Long range guidance shows another round of wet weather around February 6th but we stay relatively mild into February with the pattern returning to a trough in the West and ridge in the East.

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Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. The ABC 3340 Weather Team has set the stops for the 2013 Storm Alert Tour which include Tuscaloosa, Jasper, Clanton, and Clay. All program begin at 6:30 pm so come out early for a good seat and a chance to meet James, Charles, and Ashley. I will have the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Sunday morning. And you can catch my latest forecast on ABC 3340 at 6 and 10 pm this evening. Have a great Saturday and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather