Generally Dry Through Friday

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RAIN STAYS NORTH: We don’t expect much change in our weather through Friday, with partly to mostly sunny, warm days, and fair pleasant nights through Friday. MOS guidance remains too warm; highs will be in the mid 80s, with lows in the low 60s. Moisture levels will rise a bit late in the week, and we might consider a small risk of a shower Friday afternoon or evening, but for now we won’t mention it in the forecast.

WEEKEND FORECAST: Getting a little better clarity and agreement this morning between the GFS and the ECMWF, but some uncertainty remains. We will need to mention a chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, on Saturday, thanks to an upper trough overhead and an approaching cold front. The GFS is a little more aggressive on the 00Z run, and spits out a 62 percent probability of rain around here during the day Saturday with amounts of around 1/2 inch on an average basis.

Then, by early Sunday, the GFS bring drier air down into North Alabama, with showers confined to the southeast counties. And, all of the state is in dry, cool air by Monday.

The ECMWF is similar now, but the timing is different. That solution hints at the best chance of rain for North-Central Alabama coming Saturday night into Sunday, with drier air slowly working into North Alabama Monday.

So… in our public forecast we will mention a chance of showers and storms Saturday and Saturday night, and hang on to some risk of a stray shower Sunday, and then go rain-free early next week with mostly sunny pleasant days and fair nights Monday and Tuesday. The idea of a big upper low west of Alabama, as portrayed by the ECMWF early yesterday, is now off the table. Also, the idea of moisture from Hurricane Miriam (in the East Pacific) getting involved is also long gone.

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TROPICS: Day 15 of tracking Tropical Storm Nadine looping around in the middle of nowhere way out in the East Atlantic; that one won’t go away, but is no threat to land. Hurricane Miriam in the East Pacific is fading fast, and it should dissipate before reaching Baja California. And, Super Typhoon Jelawat in the West Pacific is still packing sustained winds of 160 mph, but it should weaken slowly in coming days, and it is no immediate threat to land. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: No rain for the high school football games across Alabama tomorrow night; just a small risk of a shower Friday night. Temperatures both nights should be in the 70s for the games.

Auburn takes the weekend off; Alabama has a late date (8:15 p.m. kickoff) with Ole Miss Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The sky will be mostly cloudy, and showers are possible during the game, so it looks like you will need to take the rain gear. I don’t think the rain will be heavy or continuous, just the chance of a few passing showers. Temperatures will be mostly in the 70s.

UAB hosts Tulsa at Legion Field Saturday afternoon (2:00 kickoff)… the sky will be mostly cloudy, and a shower is possible during that game as well. The kickoff temperature will be near 80 degrees, falling into the 70s during the second half.

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Tags: warm

Category: Alabama's Weather