Big Changes This Weekend

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CALM AFTERNOON: Not much happening on radar across the great state of Alabama this afternoon; just a few isolated showers are over East and Southeast Alabama. Temperatures are generally in the 80s, well below most model MOS forecasts. Not much happening upstream; so I figure most places will be dry overnight.

TOMORROW/SATURDAY: The chance of any one spot remains pretty small tomorrow; we expect a mix of sun and clouds with a high around 90. Models have been consistently too hot in their output this week.

A cold front will move through the state on Saturday and bring our next significant chance of rain. Good news for football fans… the 12Z (morning) model runs have come in drier for Alabama. In fact, the NAM suggests we will see some light rain from about 6:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon, and then we go rain-free for the afternoon. We won’t buy into that solution totally, and will keep some risk of rain in the forecast through the afternoon. But, it now looks like rain amounts will be less than one-half inch, and probably not much thunder. We will be more specific with timing in our forecast tomorrow as new model data rolls in.

COOL CHANGE ON SUNDAY: A nice, refreshing airmass arrives Sunday following the front. Lots of sun, low humidity, a fresh north breeze, and a high in the 77 to 80 degree range. A good chance we fall into the 50s by early Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather looks rain-free Monday through Thursday with sunny days, clear pleasant nights, and just a slow warming trend. Should be our longest dry spell since late July.

WATCHING THE GULF: The “ghost of Isaac” in the Gulf is very disorganized; the convection is far to the southwest of the low level circulation center. Still some chance this becomes a tropical depression over the next few days, but one way or another the main issue will be the threat of heavy rain for North Florida (places like Orlando, Daytona Beach, Tampa, Jacksonville) this weekend. No impact on Alabama one way or another other than some rough surf on the Gulf Coast.

LESLIE: Good news for Bermuda… models have been shifting to the right, and the NHC has adjusted their track to the east as well. Leslie is expected to pass east of Bermuda this weekend, then threatening Newfoundland early next week. No impact on the U.S. other than swells on the East Coast.

MICHAEL: This was a major hurricane this morning in the middle of the Atlantic; it has weakened a bit this afternoon, and will basically die early week in the middle of nowhere, not impacting any land mass.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Most high school football games will be played rain-free tonight and tomorrow night. The chance of any one stadium seeing a shower is only about 10 percent, and temperatures will be in the 80-83 degree range with high humidity levels.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Very similar weather for Saturday’s Auburn/Mississippi State game at Starkville (11:00 a.m. kickoff), and Alabama/Western Kentucky game in Tuscaloosa (2:30 kickoff). The sky will be mostly cloudy, and some scattered light rain is possible at both venus. The chance of lightning looks small, and we don’t expect any really heavy rain. Temperatures will be generally in the low 80s at both sites.

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Tags: humid

Category: Alabama's Weather