Pressure Drops a Little

FAST FACTS AT 1 PM
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LOCATION…26.1N 85.9W
ABOUT 255 MI…410 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

The pressure has dropped 4 mb in the past few hours, perhaps indicating the storm is trying to strengthen.

The last max flight level wind on this current flight was 54 knots. That was in the northwest quadrant. The SFMR measurement of surface winds was just under 74 mph. So we may have a hurricane on the next advisory at 4 p.m.

Convection near the center continues to grow and expand, but the system appears to be battling some shear still from the upper low to its southwest and the entrainment of dry air.

The center appears to be west of the forecast track now. The 12z GFS does bring the center up to the coast around lunchtime tomorrow and then turns it west along the coast. It has consistently output that result for a few runs.

The 12z European has thrown a new wrinkle. It brings the strom up to Lake Borgne (east of Lake Pontchartrain) and turns it west over the Rigolets into Lake Pontchartrain, where it stalls. Hmmm…

It’s a beautiful day in New Orleans and along the Mississippi Coast with blue skies. The first squalls are reaching Pensacola now. It is wet across much of the Florida Panhandle.

Traffic is heavy coming out of New Orleans this afternoon. It is basically at a standstill through Metairie out past I-310. Travel time is one hour between downtown and Loyola Drive. Traffic is slow near Gonzales and in South Baton Rouge as well on I-10. Contraflow is not in effect.

Category: Tropical