Morning Forecast Discussion

Issac remains the main story in the weather on this Saturday morning.

The forecast is a little clearer this morning and it appears that a landfall on the Florida Panhandle late Tuesday is likely. Conditions will deteriorate Monday night from east to west across the Panhandle, starting in the Apalachicola/Panama City area. Preparations along the coast will need to be done Monday.

Isaac has emerged off the coast of Haiti after shedding 10 mph. It will move over eastern Cuba and into the Florida Straits by tonight. It is a large, lumbering, rather disorganized storm still, which is good. Isaac will intensify on Sunday and reach the Florida Keys Sunday night. It will spend Monday crossing the eastern Gulf on a slowing northwesterly course. It will start to turn north northwest on Tuesday and then north. Landfall should come Tuesday night on the Florida Panahandle, between Pensacola and Apalachicola, likely around Destin, Panama City or Fort Walton as a category one hurricane. It could be stronger.

There is some question whether an approaching trough will turn it out to the northeast or let it linger over the Deep South. This will of course affect the wind and rain impact over Alabama. I think a track across Southeast and East Central Alabama on Wednesday is likely, with the heaviest rain near and east of the track. Some areas could pick up 5-10 inches of rain, with a tight gradient of decreasing amounts to the west. West Alabama might be lucky to get a half inch. Of course, if a more westerly track materializes, the area of heavy rain will expand.

FOR YOUR WEEKEND: Good weather today and Sunday, especially if you are hitting the sidewalks of downtown Birmingham for the Sidewalk Moving Picture festival. Some mid level clouds are moving across the area from Mississippi. A few light showers are showing up on radars over the magnolia State, and we will see a few light showers in West and Northwest Alabama, but they won’t be heavy. There could be an isolated storm across the area this afternoon. Highs will top out near 90F. Like this morning, lows tomorrow morning will be in the upper 60s. Tomorrow, we will begin to see sinking air to the north of the hurricane. This will put the kibosh on any thunderstorm development tomorrow. Highs will again reach 90F.

KICKING OFF THE WORK WEEK: Monday will be just like Sunday, with almost no chance of a cooling storm and highs near 90 degrees. Tuesday should start off partly cloudy, but you will notice a freshening northeasterly wind during the day. Clouds will increase as well. Highs will make it into the middle 80s. Tuesday night will be a blustery, cloudy night, with an increasing chance of showers.

WEDNESDAY: If the expected track of Isaac materializes, heavy rain will spread northward over Central Alabama late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rain and storms will be likely on Wednesday. It will be quite windy, with winds averaging 25-45 mph with higher gusts. There could be a few tornadoes east of the track as well, but they should be of the small, short lived variety mainly. The rainfall will be heavy east of the track.

THURSDAY: Expect rapidly improving conditions on Thursday, with lingering blustery winds out of the north if the storm moves into Georgia. It will remain windy, wet and stormy on Thursday if Isaac is not lifted out to the northeast as the dying system lumbers into Mississippi, keeping us on the west side.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: Even if Isaac does move into Georgia, it may swing back around to the west if it gets blocked by high pressure to the northeast, meaning a few showers for the Labor Day weekend.

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Have a great Saturday. Make sure to go enjoy the Sidewalk Moving Picture Festival downtown today and tomorrow.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Tropical