A Little Stronger, A Little Clearer Picture

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Isaac is a little better organized and a little stronger late tonight. Top winds are now 70 mph and the central pressure is down to 990 mb. The storm looks more organized on satellite. Thunderstorms are now definitely forming around the center of circulation.

There is a chance that Isaac will become a hurricane before it reaches Haiti overnight.

The guys at the NHC seemed to reach a little bit of a breakthrough tonight in resolving the models. The trough that has been over the Southeast is the key player. The GFS model did a better job resolving it and explains the more northwestward track.

The storm will spend less time over Cuba tomorrow and tomorrow night and this will allow it to lose less intensity. Plus it will put it over the Florida Straits longer, and the time over water will lead to more strengthening. Isaac may approach hurricane intensity again before the center reaches the Middle Keys Sunday night.

Monday morning will find it strengthening over the southeastern Gulf on a northwesterly track.

The projected forecast carries it to the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday night. The Florida Panhandle coast looks to be the likely landfall point, but the cone of uncertainty dictates that folks from New Orleans all the way around the Gulf Coast, including western Florida need to be vigilant.

Top winds are forecast to be 90 mph then, but there is little skill in forecasting intensity change and Isaac could be much stronger.

The storm will take most of Wednesday to get up into Central Alabama. Some heavy rains could result.

This forecast is not set in stone of course, but is a best idea for now.

Category: Tropical