Late Afternoon Update

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I produced a short Weather Xtreme video that explains the latest on Tropical Storm Isaac….

OUR WEEKEND: First off, the weekend looks mostly rain-free with only isolated showers tomorrow and Sunday. We actually have a few small showers over East Alabama right now, and the radar should look pretty much the same over the weekend. The chance of any one spot getting wet is only about 10 percent.

Of course, the weather next week all depends on the track of Isaac.

MODEL MADNESS: After last night’s shift to the west, models have shifted to the east this afternoon. The best model blend shows landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Cedar Key Florida late Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF remains an outlier to the west, with a landfall near Mobile Bay. The NAM is pretty much in voodoo land and is rejected; it has tried to split Isaac up into several smaller lows in recent runs.

The NHC track has Isaac coming into the Florida Panhandle somewhere between Destin and Panama City late Tuesday afternoon as a category one storm.

RAPID STRENGTHENING? I still have some concern that Isaac might be stronger when it hits the coast. Look at the SST analysis and you will see some 90 degree (F) water temps around the loop current, and that often can really light a fire under tropical systems. Just be aware of the potential for this to be a major hurricane at the time of landfall.

BOTTOM LINE….

*At this hour, the greatest chance of landfall is between Fort Walton Beach and Apalachicola late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night. Remember, the greatest damage and storm surge issues will be along and east of the point of landfall. Areas west of the center track will have an offshore flow and the impact won’t be nearly as significant. This current track is good for Alabama’s coast.

*While NHC projects Isaac to be a category one at landfall, there is very real chance it could be stronger.

*On this track, the greatest risk of flooding rain and isolated tornadoes in spiral bands in Alabama will be south of I-85, and east of U.S. 231 over the southeast counties of the state. The rest of our state will see some wind and rain, but nothing too serious.

*The worst weather for inland parts of Alabama would come late Tuesday night and Wednesday; the weather improves greatly by Thursday and Friday.

*If you have a beach trip planned (Panama City west to Gulf Shores), the weather will be pretty nice through Monday with 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day with just a few widely scattered storms. The surf will become rough and dangerous Monday, and weather conditions will deteriorate Tuesday. On the current track, if there are mandatory evacuations, they will be from Destin and Panama City west…

Remember… expect more changes in the forecast in coming days, but with each passing day the confidence is higher in the track. We will keep the blog updated with fresh information through the weekend.

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Thanks to the large crowd that showed up today to hear me speak at the Middle Tennessee National Weather Association local chapter meeting in Nashville. It was cut a little short due to a fire alarm at the Tennessee Emergency Management agency where the meeting was held… my talk went out with a “bang” with those loud alarms.

We will keep the blog updated often in coming days.

Tags: Isaac

Category: Alabama's Weather