Media Gets It Wrong – Again…

This concerns the “NOVA” program that aired recently on PBS… you can watch it here.

Let me say up front I was delighted to see my friends Greg Carbin of the Storm Prediction Center and Tim Marshall of Haag Engineering. They are the best and were right on the money as always.

This post is not an argument about who has more tornadoes. We ALL have plenty of tornadoes in Oklahoma and here in Dixie Alley. I have zero interest in this debate. I am thankful for my many friends in Oklahoma in both the operational and research community. Their service to the science is invaluable.

HOWEVER…..

There was a clear implication in the show that people in Oklahoma are used to severe weather and that is why the loss of life there was lower last year. And, on the other hand, the suggestion was that the tornadoes in Alabama and Mississippi were an anomaly, catching people off guard resulting in the high death toll on April 27.

WRONG.

First off, tornadoes in Dixie Alley are common. But the media often uses phrases to explain severe weather here like…

“changing weather patterns”
“highly unusual”
“global warming”
“unheard of”

Give me a break.

The meteorologist in charge of the Jackson NWS office, Alan Gerard, speaks out below. All I can say is AMEN. Too bad nobody with this program bothered to talk with Alan or anybody else around these parts. Guess we are not “enlightened” enough for them.

“Let me preface this by saying I have not seen the actual NOVA episode yet that has some people in my neck of the woods railing – but nevertheless, I am concerned about what I have heard and other media stories which make it sound like the recent tornado outbreaks in the Southeast are somehow unusual or new.

With 2011 now in the official database, I went in today and did some back of the hand comparisons between the Plains (KS, NE, OK, N TX) and the Southeast (AR, MS, LA, TN, GA). I don’t think anyone would argue that the Plains has more tornadoes – but where there is a difference is the impacts.

My very quick, not rigorous, calculations show that since 1950 the Plains and Southeast have about the same number of significant (which I defined as EF2+ with 10 mile or greater track) tornadoes, ~4 per 1000 sq miles. The difference is in the casualties: the Plains average about 3.7 deaths and 48 injuries per 1000 square miles, the Southeast averages about 7.3 and 88 injuries per 1000 square miles. So the basic fact is this: regardless of the fact that the Plains may have “more tornadoes,” more people are killed and injured from tornadoes in the Southeast.

And while there are many reasons for this, at the core, it’s pretty simple: more people live in the Southeast, there are more people living in mobile homes in the Southeast, and there are more nocturnal tornadoes in the Southeast. These are the points we need to make in the media. And this is not something that has changed, or is unusual, or just happened. It’s been this way for a long time, and it’s not going to change anytime soon. We as a weather community need to be with a consistent voice emphasizing that if you live in the Southeast, you live in a dangerous area with regard to tornadoes, and you need to be weather aware 12 months out of the year.”

Well said, Alan. I hope some of the media people who talk about things they don’t understand read this. I will close with a news release just received this morning from Engineering Analysis, Inc. The people at NOVA might find it interesting.

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By means of the Site Assessment of Tornado Threat (SATT) software, Engineering Analysis Inc. (EAI) has just completed its annual compilation of the top twenty tornado-prone states, based on the latest National Weather Service data for tornadic activity from 1950 through 2011.  Mississippi retains it ranking as the most tornado-prone state, followed by Alabama.  The top twenty states are as follows:

The Annual Coverage Fraction (ACF) represents tornado probability based on the average fraction of land annually disturbed by tornadoes within the boundaries of the state from 1950 through 2011.  This measure of tornado probability is consistent with the definition given in the FEMA Benefit-Cost Analysis Reengineering (BCAR) Tornado Safe Room Module Methodology Report.  The annual disturbed land area can be obtained by multiplying the ACF by the area of the state.

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