Warmth Continues as Showers Lessen

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The warmth just keeps rolling along for us in the Southeast US. Birmingham set a new record high yesterday of 85 degrees breaking the old record of 84 set in 1982. Looks like the string of records for the next several days are probably not in serious jeopardy as the daily record highs nudge upward into the upper 80s for most days. So while the records are not clearly in jeopardy of being broken, the warmth continues with highs still in the middle 80s.

With an upper ridge pumping up across the eastern half of the US, we should see the showers essentially come to an end across our area allowing us several days of dry weather from Sunday through Tuesday. As the upper trough/closed low come eastward on Wednesday, we should see a mostly cloudy day which will help to ease off the heat for us somewhat. It will still be warm with a high dropping back to around 80. The best chance of rain appears likely to occur on Thursday as the front comes through the Southeast US. The upper closed low which is going to be a cold core low will be slow to mosey by, but the trough axis should pass by on Saturday putting an end to the rain chances, though we are likely to stay cloudy.

There is a risk of severe storms with this weather on Thursday, but right now there is a little too much uncertainty to the overall pattern especially when it comes to the strength of instability to really be specific on an area for severe weather threat. Certainly this system will bear watching for the potential for severe weather. One difference to note is a timing difference between the GFS and the ECMWF. The ECMWF is a bit faster than the GFS, but I tend to side with the GFS on the slower movement.

Looking further down the road, the GFS brings the upper ridge back into the picture on the 27th with a trough coming out of the Rockies on the first of April which would promise some stormy weather for April 1st.

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-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather