Major Severe Weather Threat Late Tomorrow
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SEE THE VIDEO: On days like this, ahead of a significant weather event, I always enourage you to take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video… it has all of the graphics and detail to answer all questions not covered here.
THIS AFTERNOON: A surface front bisects Alabama… south of the front, it has been a mostly cloudy day with showers and storms over the southern counties. In fact, a tornado warning was issued earlier for parts of Geneva and Houston Counties. But, north of the front, the sky is mostly sunny. Temperatures, as expected, are very mild with mostly 70s on the board at mid-afternoon.
We will mention the risk of a few showers around here tonight as the warm front moves northward, but nothing really organized or heavy.
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER: No change in the SPC outlook tomorrow… they maintain an enhanced “moderate risk” of severe weather for much of North Alabama, extending north through Tennessee, Kentucky and into southern parts of Ohio. Within that moderate risk, there is a 45 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point. That is a very high percentage, leading us to think SPC might upgrade part of that moderate risk to a rare “high risk” tomorrow. If they opt to do this, more than likely the high risk will be north of Alabama.
The 12Z model runs don’t really show anything different. Let’s break down the event…
TIMING: Thunderstorms should begin to fire up in random spots across North Alabama during the afternoon, and these storms will be capable of producing a few tornadoes, maybe even a long track tornado. In addition, hail and damaging winds will be possible. The main window for these storms and the tornado threat is from 2:00 p.m. until 9:00 p.m. Then, from 9:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. the main risk becomes damaging straight line winds from a long squall line, which is expected to form ahead of a strong cold front. The severe weather risk will be over by daybreak Saturday.
PLACEMENT: The highest severe weather probabilities are in the moderate risk area, which is north of a line from Vernon to Jasper to Cullman to Fort Payne. But, let us stress the severe weather risk (the standard risk) extends well to the south… and severe weather is possible as far south as Grove Hill, Montgomery, and Lafayette. The risk is much lower deep into South Alabama, simply because they are far away from the better dynamics.
THREATS: The initial threat with the discreet storms over North Alabama tomorrow afternoon will come from the tornado potential… but hail and strong winds are possible in those storms as well. Then, after 9:00 p.m… the risk shifts to damaging straight line winds along the QLCS (quasi-linear convective system).
CALL TO ACTION: You need to be able to hear severe weather warnings tomorrow and tomorrow night, and you should never rely on a siren. Sirens reach a small number of people outdoors, and that is it. See this page on the ABC 33/40 site for information on getting a NOAA Weather Radio, iMap Weather Radio for your phone, or WeatherCall for your home phone. And, of course, if you get a tornado warning, you have to have a plan of action. Know where you are going in your home, and if you live in a mobile home, you have to leave. And, have a readiness kit with things like helmets, shoes, batteries, cell phone chargers, etc. For more information on our preparedness ideas… see this page.
OUR WEEKEND: The 12Z models are showing the rain to end around here (North-Central Alabama) between 5 and 9 a.m. Saturday. Then, the sky begins to clear Saturday afternoon, with a cool breeze. We might not get out of the 50s Saturday; the NAM is printing a high of only 55 degrees. Sunday will feature a good supply of sunshine with a high somewhere between 57 and 61.
NEXT WEEK: The weather looks calm with dry conditions for most of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range details.
STORM ALERT 2012: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama has one more stop this year; we will be at Pleasant Valley High School in Calhoun County, near Jacksonville, on Monday of next week at 6:30. We hope to see many of you there.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I had a great time today visiting with the 4th and 5th graders at West Point Intermediate School in Cullman County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News… the kids from Gadsden Middle School will be on at 5:00. I will have another complete discussion and update on the Alabama weather situation posted here early tomorrow morning by 7:00…
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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