Significant Severe Weather Threat Ahead
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
TODAY: Before we get into the specifics on tomorrow’s severe weather threat, let’s clearly point out that we won’t have any big issues today. But, a moist, unstable airmass will remain in place with a stalled surface front north of here, so we will have a chance of scattered showers and storms through tonight. The most numerous ones should be south of I-20, and today’s high should be well in the 70s on this first day of meteorological spring.
MODERATE RISK: SPC has placed much of North Alabama in an “moderate risk” of severe weather for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, and the probabilities are very high within that risk area… they suggest there is a 45 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any point. Quoting from the day two SPC convective outlook…
“AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE… SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA IS BEING INTRODUCED…DRIVING CATEGORICAL MDT RISK WHERE OVERLAID WITH RELATIVELY DENSE 45% TOTAL-SVR PROBABILITY.”
Let me first encourage you to take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video, which will show all of the graphics and go into detail about this threat.
TIMING: With temperatures expected to rise into the 77 to 80 degree range tomorrow afternoon, we might see thunderstorms developing as early as midday. I would suggest the main risk of thunderstorms with isolated tornadoes will come from 12:00 noon to 10:00 p.m. Then, a late night squall line will bring the risk of damaging wind from 10:00 p.m. to 3:00 a.m. Saturday. The real core threat will be in the 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. time frame when it comes to tornado activity.
PLACEMENT: Let me say up front that the severe weather parameters are actually higher north of Alabama, and I would not be surprised if SPC goes “high risk” for parts of Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Ohio. But, clearly there is sufficient instability and helicity over Alabama for the threat of severe weather. The highest risk of severe weather will be north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden, but severe storms are actually possible in South Alabama as well, perhaps as far south as U.S. 84. But, the risk to the south is not as great.
THREATS: Storms that form tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening could produce large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. SPC has the “significant/long track” tornado wording for those in the moderate risk area (North Alabama and points north), but to me it seems like the greatest risk of these really violent tornadoes will be north of Alabama. But, one way or another, tornadoes are a very real threat. Then, tomorrow night as all of the storms roll over into a long squall line, the main threat will come from damaging straight line winds.
CALL TO ACTION: Everybody needs to be able to hear severe weather warnings, have a place of action if a tornado is near, and a readiness kit just in case you take a hit. Let me encourage you to go through this on the ABC 33/40 site… but mainly you just need to be in touch with weather developments tomorrow and tomorrow night. Stay in touch!
THE WEEKEND: Models have been all over the board on timing the back side of the Friday night storm event. The latest runs are now faster, and clear the rain out of here by 6:00 a.m. Saturday. This bodes well for the Brenda Ladun conquer cancer run and other events Saturday morning. Saturday will feature a clearing sky, and the weather will be breezy and cooler with temperatures possible not getting out of the 50s. Sunday looks cool and dry with a good supply of sunshine.
NEXT WEEK: The latest global model runs now look pretty dry for much of the week… see the Weather Xtreme video for details.
STORM ALERT 2012: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama has one more stop this year; we will be at Pleasant Valley High School in Calhoun County, near Jacksonville, on Monday of next week at 6:30. We hope to see many of you there.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I will be doing a program this morning in Cullman County at West Point Intermediate School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to receive more just like it.
