Severe Weather Risk Tonight, And Friday Night
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THIS AFTERNOON: A tornado watch is in effect for about the northern third of Alabama until 9:00 p.m. See the Weather Xtreme video for the tornado watch graphic, and all of the graphics that go with this discussion. The watch does NOT include Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, or Anniston, but it does include Gadsden, Cullman, Hamilton, etc.
The greatest risk of isolated tornadoes will be over the watch area… from now until around 7:00 p.m. We note STP (significant tornado parameter) values between 2 and 3 in the broad area from Monroe, Louisiana up into North Mississippi, Northwest Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky. This is certainly supportive of a few isolated tornadoes.
After that the primary risk will come from strong, possibly damaging straight line winds tonight as all of the activity rolls over into a squall line from 7:00 p.m. until 10:00 p.m. or so. Storms will weaken after 10:00 p.m. as the air becomes more stable and the upper support weakens and moves farther away from Alabama.
All Alabamians should be able to hear severe weather warnings this evening and tonight if they are needed.
TOMORROW: We will be in-between systems, but the surface front will be stalled somewhere around U.S. 278, so we will maintain a chance of scattered showers and storms in the moist, unstable air across Alabama. The high tomorrow should be well into the 70s.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Yet another severe weather opportunity. SPC has the standard “slight risk” in place for about the northern half of Alabama… with enhanced 30 percent severe weather probabilities from Northwest Alabama up into Tennessee and Kentucky. Seems like severe weather parameters will be a tad more impressive with this system.
Initially, a few discreet storms will form Friday afternoon into Friday evening with potential for hail, gusty winds, and a few isolated tornadoes. Then, all of the activity will roll over into a long squall line Friday night with potential for damaging straight line winds.
The main window for severe weather with this system will come from about 3:00 p.m. Friday through 3:00 a.m. Saturday. We will be able to be much more specific after we get the storms tonight out of there, and we can review the state of the atmosphere tomorrow morning.
The 12Z GFS continues to hint that the storms will end around mid-morning Saturday. The sky clears Saturday afternoon, with sunshine back in full force on Sunday. The weekend will be cooler with highs in the 60s.
NEXT WEEK: We should stay dry Monday and Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. The 12Z GFS shows the next storm system due in here around Thursday of next week… way too early to be specific about any potential severe weather issue. See the Weather Xtreme video for complete details.
NEED WEATHER RADIO HELP? We will be programming NOAA Weather Radio receivers today at the Publix in Pinson from 3:30 until 7:00 p.m. If you need help with yours, come out and see us. And, if you need a weather radio, they will be available at the Publix for just under thirty dollars.
STORM ALERT 2012: What a great crowd last night in Cullman. We have one more stop this year; we will be at Pleasant Valley High School in Calhoun County, near Jacksonville, on Monday of next week at 6:30.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
As always, I had a great time this morning speaking to the third graders at Oak Grove Elementary in the western part of Jefferson County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 6:00 this evening. The kids from Gadsden Middle School will be on the Pepsi KIDCAM at 5:00.
We will keep the blog updated with fresh information on the Alabama weather situation tonight… so stay tuned….
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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