Severe weather analysis 145 pm

A line of thunderstorms currently stretches from eastern KY, into middle TN, then into north MS and southern AR.  It is moving slowly SE.

The strongest dynamics with this storm (largest wind shear, strongest low-level jet, etc.) are farther north.  Right now the closest tornado warnings are in eastern Kentucky.  However, the air over Alabama is already unstable, with dewpoints around 63, and as you can see on the satellite picture below, some breaks in the clouds may allow some sun this afternoon, warming temperatures into the mid 70s in some spots.  It is already 73 in TCL.

Notice also what appear to be shear-induced gravity waves in the clouds (lines oriented NW-SE).

The latest balloon launch from NWS BMX in Calera (at noon) shows a capping inversion in place aloft.  However, as dynamics move into the area later, this cap will break.  As the main front and line of storms approaches Alabama late this afternoon, and into central Alabama by this evening, if we get significant sunshine and temperatures rise into the 70s all over, we could be looking at a significant threat for damaging winds tonight.  Fortunately, the strongest low-level jet will be moving out to the north as the storms move into central AL this evening. However, there will still be wind shear, and tornadoes can not be ruled out.

The main threat for severe weather in TCL/BHM/ANB will be between 5 pm and 1 am.

Category: Severe Weather