Severe Storms Possible Late Today And Tonight
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ACTIVE PATTERN: We have two rounds of severe weather we expect in Alabama over the next three days… let’s take them one at a time.
ROUND ONE: As I write this during the pre-dawn hours, a pretty significant severe weather event is in progress northwest of the state, with a number of tornado warnings in effect from NE Arkansas to southern parts of Indiana. Seems like a very significant tornado moved through downtown Branson, Missouri last night with reports of major damage and injuries.
SPC maintains the “slight risk”, their standard risk, of severe weather for about the northern half of Alabama this afternoon and tonight. There is an enhanced 30 percent of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point from North Alabama to southern Ohio.
No real change in our thinking; the main upper support will be north of our state, along with the best helicity values. The primary threat here will come from damaging straight line winds along a squall line. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, but the risk is pretty marginal.
The main window for strong to severe storms will come from about 3:00 p.m. until 10:00 p.m. Storms will weaken late tonight as the air becomes more stable and the upper support continues to pull away from Alabama.
Other than the storm threat, today will be mostly cloudy, mild, and windy at times with a high in the low to mid 70s.
TOMORROW: The front will stall out somewhere over North Alabama late tonight, so we stay in a moist, unstable airmass tomorrow and we will continue to mention some risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We stay very mild with a high in the upper 70s.
ROUND TWO: Yet another strong upper trough will sweep through with another risk of severe weather Friday afternoon and Friday night. SPC has roughly the northern half of the state in their standard “slight risk” for this event, with an enhanced 30 percent risk of severe weather roughly from Muscle Shoals to Cincinnati.
This event will feature higher instability values, and slightly higher helicity parameters. So, all modes of severe weather will be likely, including a few isolated tornadoes with storms that form ahead of the main line late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. But, again it seems like the most significant threat will come from the possibility of damaging straight line winds with the QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) Friday night. At this point it looks like the window for severe weather will come from about 4:00 p.m. Friday through 4:00 a.m. Saturday. But, we really need to get tonight’s storms out of here before we really focus on this event.
We should note some pretty significant amounts of rain will fall during the next 3 days, with many communities getting over two inches. Some spots could see 3 inches or more, especially over the Tennessee Valley.
See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion.
SATURDAY: Models have been all over the board on timing. The 06Z GFS is all of a sudden slower again, suggesting it might be mid-morning Saturday before the storms get out of here, followed by clearing Saturday afternoon. One way or another the day will be cooler with a high in the low 60s.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: These days will feature a good supply of sunshine with cool mornings, but highs in the 60s.
We have seen some global model runs showing another significant storm event by Wednesday of next week, but the 06Z GFS says no… just too early to be specific. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for long range ideas and details.
NEED WEATHER RADIO HELP? We will be programming NOAA Weather Radio receivers today at the Publix in Pinson from 3:30 until 7:00 p.m. If you need help with yours, come out and see us. And, if you need a weather radio, they will be available at the Publix for just under thirty dollars.
STORM ALERT 2012: Thanks to everyone for coming out last night to our show at Cullman… it was a packed house. We will do one more show… next Monday night (March 5) at Pleasant Valley High School in Calhoun County. This is very close to Webster’s Chapel and Ohatchee, where tornado damage was so severe last April 27. The show will begin at 6:30.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I have a weather program this morning at Oak Grove Elementary School…. a place where they know tornado damage so well. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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