Mild And Stormy Weather Ahead
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OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS: A check of the radar early this morning actually shows some pretty healthy thunderstorms over parts of South-Central Alabama… the strongest as I write this in the pre-dawn hours is over South Dallas County, about 30 miles south of downtown Selma. While we don’t expect any severe weather today, the day will be generally cloudy with a few passing showers. Some thunder is possible in a few spots as well… and the high should be in the 66-70 degree range.
TO THE WEST: Severe storms should form over much of Arkansas and the adjacent states late this afternoon and tonight with the approach of an upper trough; SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” of severe weather there.
TOMORROW/THURSDAY: SPC has roughly the northern half of Alabama in a slight severe weather risk, with enhanced 30 percent probabilities from I-20 north. Not much change in the situation… it still looks like the greatest risk here will come from the potential of damaging straight line winds… with only an outside tornado risk. The main dynamics and surface low are far to the north, and low level SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) values are not all that high. But, there will be some decent instability (surface based CAPE values over 1,000 j/kg), and with a surface front approaching a squall line is very possible with gusty winds.
The main window for strong to severe storms will come from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow through about midnight tomorrow night. But, a few strong storms could linger into the overnight hours as the front begins to slow down and stall over North Alabama.
The latest guidance is now suggesting the front will become stationary somewhere around U.S. 278… keeping the southern two-thirds of Alabama in a moist airmass on Thursday. Accordingly, we will need to adjust the forecast to keep a higher risk of showers, and maybe even a storm or two, going during the day Thursday for Central Alabama. The northern quarter of the state will be in drier air, and the day up there should be mostly dry.
MORE STORMS FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Another strong upper trough will bring yet another chance of severe weather to Alabama at the end of the week. Long time readers know what I will say here… it doesn’t make any real sense to even try and get specific on this one until we get tomorrow night’s system out of here, and we get within 48 hours of the event.
But… at first glance… severe weather parameters will be a little higher, and we will have a risk of severe thunderstorms sometime in the 3:00 p.m. Friday to 6:00 a.m. Saturday time frame. We will rise well into the 70s Friday, with parts of West Alabama possibly touching the 80 degree mark, meaning there should be plenty of surface based instability. The tornado threat could very well be a little higher as well with higher helicity values, but we need to wait before we really get down to specifics.
The 06Z GFS shows these storms exiting the state pretty early in the day Saturday, followed by a clearing sky. Saturday will be cooler with a high in the low 60s.
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK: The weather looks very nice, with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights Sunday through Tuesday. Highs in the 60s, and lows mostly in the 40s. Colder spots could see low to mid 30s early Sunday, however.
See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details that go along with this discussion.
VOODOO LAND: Still no sign of any seriously cold air around here for the next 15 days… or late season winter weather mischief.
STORM ALERT 2012: We will bring our severe weather awareness show to Cullman tonight… we will be at the Cullman Civic Center at 6:30; be sure and come early to get a good seat. You will see some very powerful stories about last year’s generational tornado outbreak on April 27.
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I will be speaking this morning at Gadsden Middle School… then on to Cullman for tonight’s Storm Alert show. I hope to have just enough time to produce an afternoon Weather Xtreme video… Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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