Warm Late Winter Day
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TOO WARM FOR FEBRUARY: How about these mid-afternoon observations around Alabama….
Tuscaloosa 81
Muscle Shoals 81
Montgomery 78
Birmingham 78
Anniston 77
We need to reach 83 to tie today’s record (based on the data for Birmingham)… that was set back in 1996. We note Jackson, Mississippi hit 84 earlier this afternoon, beating their old record high for the date.
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TONIGHT: Not much has changed in our overall thinking for tonight. The atmosphere is capped now (warm air aloft is preventing showers from developing), but with dynamic forcing approaching tonight, the cap will break and a band of showers and storms will form ahead of a cold front.
If any storms can form ahead of the main line, there is a high level of low level shear (0-1 km SRH values over 400 m2/s2), and one or two isolated tornadoes are possible. But, the main threat will be along the line with storms that can produce hail and strong straight line winds. SPC has their standard “slight risk” of severe weather up for about the northern third of Alabama, from I-20 north. Areas south of Birmingham might see a strong storm or two, but the severe weather risk is lower there.
Isolated showers and storms could begin to develop as early as 6:00 to 9:00, but it looks like the main window for strong to severe storms will come from about 9:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. I would not consider this a “major” severe weather threat, but if we just have one tornado in the entire state, and if it comes through your neighborhood, the event becomes “major” to you. We advise everybody to be in a place where you can hear severe weather warnings if they are needed tonight.
TOMORROW: Showers and storms should move out of the area early in the day; the sky becomes partly sunny, and the weather will be breezy and cooler with a high around 60.
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday promises to be cool and dry, with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the mid to upper 50s. Sunday will be partly sunny with a high around 60… clouds will slowly increase during the afternoon, but at this point it looks like any showers will stay over the southern half of the state during the day.
NEXT WEEK: We might see a shower or two around here Monday, but showers will be more likely Tuesday, and by Wednesday some thunderstorms could be involved as dynamic forcing increases. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details and all of the graphics that go along with this discussion.
STORM ALERT 2012: Again a reminder our annual severe weather awareness tour rolls along. The show that was scheduled for tonight at Pleasant Valley High School in Calhoun County has been rescheduled for Monday March 5 (due to tonight’s severe weather threat). The next show will be in Cullman on Tuesday of next week, February 28, at 6:30. One of the featured stories we are doing this year is looking at the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak through the eyes of a child, featuring letters written by kids from East Elementary in Cullman.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Stay tuned to the blog for running updates on the Alabama weather situation tonight…. the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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