Severe Storms Possible This Evening
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
RIGHT NOW: The Storm Prediction Center is considering issuing a severe weather watch for about the northern half oF Alabama any minute… we note just a few isolated showers on radar as of 3:00, but scattered showers and storms are expected to increase in both number and intensity over the next few hours with a short wave approaching from the northwest.
Temperatures are generally in the 68-72 degree range, with some breaks in the overcast. Surface based CAPE values are around 500 j/kg, but with some upper cooling approaching, those values could rise to near 1,000 j/kg this evening.
It won’t rain everywhere tonight, but where the storms do form they could pack a punch, with potential for large hail and strong, gusty winds. There is actually a high degree of low level shear (200-300 m2/s2 0-1 SRH) in place, so we might even have an isolated tornado or two. The main window for severe weather in Alabama is from about 4:00 p.m. until 9:00 p.m. Storms should weaken and end late tonight.
TOMORROW: The day tomorrow should be delightful, with a partly sunny sky, a high in the mid 70s, and a gusty south breeze.
ROUND TWO: The next bout of severe weather comes tomorrow night. No real change in the overall thinking; SPC has almost all of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” for severe weather, with probabilities holding at 15 percent (that is the chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point).
Seems like the main window for severe weather will come from 8:00 p.m. tomorrow until 5:00 a.m. Friday, and the forecast parameters suggest a chance of hail and strong winds in some of the storms. With a high amount of low level shear, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out as well. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics that go along with this discussion along with additional details.
We can be much more specific about the threat tomorrow night once tonight’s storms are gone, and we can take a look at the state of the atmosphere early tomorrow.
The sky will become partly sunny Friday afternoon, and the day will be breezy and cooler with a high around 60.
OUR WEEKEND: We will continue to forecast a sunny Saturday to kick off the weekend; we start the day in the 32-35 degree range, but rise into the mid to upper 50s by afternoon. Sunday will be partly sunny with a high near the 60 degree mark.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS looks dry on Monday, but brings in showers Tuesday, and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Keep in mind other model runs have brought in showers as early as Monday. One way or another the first half of next week looks relatively wet. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.
STORM ALERT 2012: The show scheduled tomorrow night for Pleasant Valley High School in Calhoun County has been moved to Monday March 5 due to the threat of severe weather.
WEATHER RADIO PROGRAMMING: Need your weather radio programmed? We will be at the Publix on Huntley Parkway in Pelham today from 3:30 until 7:00 p.m. You can also buy a new one at the Publix if needed.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to receive more just like it.
