Saturday Soaker Ahead
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STILL DRY TODAY: The sky over Alabama today will be partly sunny with a high in the mid 60s; clouds will thicken late in the day and tonight ahead of a vigorous weather system that will bring a soaking rain as we begin the weekend.
TIMING: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the maps and graphics that should answer your questions about tomorrow’s weather. The rain will spread across Alabama tomorrow morning from southwest to northeast, but a decent part of the morning could be dry for North-Central Alabama. By mid-afternoon the rain should be rather widespread, continuing into Saturday night. The rain will end during the pre-dawn hours Sunday.
HOW MUCH RAIN? The 00Z NAM is printing 2.23″ for Birmingham… while the GFS is drier with 1.09″. We will forecast amounts of one to two inches for this part of Alabama, with isolated heavier amounts. The heaviest rain will be down over South Alabama, with two to three inches likely.
SEVERE STORMS? SPC maintains their standard “slight risk” of severe weather over the southern half of Alabama. The enhanced probabilities (30 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point) are south of Montgomery, where the best mix of instability and shear will be found.
I would say the best chance of seeing severe storms this weekend will be south of a line from Linden to Montgomery to Roanoke, although we can’t totally rule out a severe storm as far north as I-20. The severe weather risk north of I-20 is very minimal. Just lots of rain there.
Over South Alabama, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including potential for a few isolated tornadoes. Seems like the main window for severe storms will come from 12:00 noon until 12:00 midnight tomorrow. We encourage every in South Alabama to be in a position to hear severe weather warnings in the event they are needed.
SUNDAY: We will forecast gradual clearing Sunday… and we will be slightly cooler with a high in the 50s. But, often in situations like this the clouds on the back side of the departing system can hang around longer than you think. I would not be totally shocked if we stay overcast all day Sunday with a cool breeze.
NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry, and there will be some rain at mid-week. Models have been all over the board on timing; watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 06Z GFS brings in a batch of showers and storms Tuesday night, and we go dry quickly on Wednesday and through the rest of the week. But, other runs have kept in some risk of showers into Wednesday, and even Thursday.
Still no sign of any extremely cold air, or winter weather mischief here through early March.
TUSCALOOSA WEATHER RADIO PROGRAMMING: We will be at the Publix on University Blvd in Tuscaloosa today from 10:30 until 1:00… if you need your NOAA Weather Radio receiver programmed, bring it by and we will be glad to handle that at no cost. And, if you need to buy a weather radio they are available at that Publix, and all of their locations.
CENTER POINT TOWN HALL: We will be doing a special town hall meeting at Center Point High School Sunday evening at 5:00 on the severe weather warning process in Alabama. We encourage you to come out and learn more about how the warning system worked during the early morning hours of January 23 when an EF-3 tornado tore through Center Point and Clay, killing one person. This event will be carried live on ABC 33/40, and the question and answer session will be streamed live.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I will be over in East Alabama today doing a weather program at Alexandria Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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