A Little Sleet; Mostly Rain Tonight
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THIS AFTERNOON: Despite temperatures in the 45-50 degree range, we have many reports of sleet across West Alabama as evaporative cooling keeps the small ice pellets intact on the way down to the surface. Needless to say, with surface temperatures so warm, there won’t be any driving issues tonight, and all of the precipitation will change to rain soon.
TO THE NORTH: The NWS in Huntsville has issued a winter weather advisory for their CWA (county warning area), but quite frankly even up there temperatures will be well above freezing and there should be no travel issues, despite a light wintry mix as the precipitation begins this evening.
Rain amounts overnight will be light, generally under 1/2 inch, and under 1/4 inch in many places. The rain will end tomorrow morning from west to east.
WEDNESDAY WARM-UP: The GFS is coming in even warmer for Wednesday… suggesting a partly sunny sky and a high of 71 degrees. The NAM is cooler with 64, and as usual, the truth is probably somewhere between those two values. But, one way or another spring-like warmth returns.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: We will forecast a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the main window for storms now coming from about 9:00 p.m. Wednesday through 12:00 noon Thursday. Shear values are getting more robust on the morning model runs, but the instability remains in question. SPC maintains the low end 5 percent severe weather probabilities for Alabama, and we will watch developments closely as this system approaches. Hopefully the timing will prevent a major severe weather issue with the storms coming through at a time when instability values tend to be lowest, during the late night and morning hours. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely with this system.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday will be dry and pleasant with a high in the low 60s. A low is expected to form over the northern Gulf of Mexico Saturday, and model output is not very consistent with this feature. The 12Z run of the GFS and the ECMWF keep the bulk of the rain over the southern half of Alabama, especially near the Gulf Coast. I still think we need to mention a chance of rain Saturday basically from I-20 south, and we can adjust the forecast as needed as the weekend gets closer.
Sunday will be dry and cooler with a high close to 50 degrees. Parts of North Alabama might not make it out of the 40s with a cool breeze out of the north.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any long lasting cold snap or winter mischief through the rest of February, but the GFS ensembles are starting to trend negative on the good ole NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) as we approach the month of March. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and graphics.
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I had a great time today visiting with the 6th graders at North Jefferson Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM this afternoon at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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