All’s Quiet…For Now

All’s quiet across Central Alabama, unless you count the very heavy rain on the roof of my house here in Trusssville at this hour. The rain really came down here, but just for a minute, indicative of the showeery nature of the activity early this morning.

Showers had been developing in areas just southeast of I-59, but now they were forming over parts of Blount, western Jefferson and Walker Counties as well.

Rainfall was becoming quite widespread in a band from Randolph/Chambers Counties southwestward through Coosa, Tallapoosa, Autauga and Lowndes Counties. This band was pushing slowly to the southeast while individual showers move quickly to the northeast.

The other band was setting up in the I-59 corridor, including Calhoun, Etowah and southern Marshall Counties southwestward through Blount, Jefferson, St. Clair and Walker Counties. The heaviest showers were in eastern Walker County between Sumiton, Dora, Cordova and Sipsey.

The highest cloud tops were only between 20-25 thousand feet still, so very little, if any lightning occurring.

That will change as we go through the morning. The airmass will become more unstable as colder air aloft moves into Alabama thanks to an upper level disturbance. To the northwest, a line of thunderstorms has formed over Tennessee, northern Mississippi and back into eastern Arkansas. It extends now from Holly Springs to south of Senatobia to west of Clarksdale. It extends back up to Nashville and into southeastern Kentucky. It is ahead of a cold front that will push down into Central Alabama later today.

Showers and storms will continue through the morning hours in the two bands across Central Alabama, becoming more widespread and heavier with time. The line of storms will reach Northwest Alabama in the next hour or so. There are no severe weather warnings in effect right now for Alabama or Mississippi. In fact, the only one in the country is over Kentucky, a Severe Thunderstorm warning, for areas northeast of London KY.

The second tornado watch of 2012 is in effect now southern Middle Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northwestern Alabama until 5 a.m. CST.

We will continue to monitor the storms ahead of the front as they sink slowly southeastward through the morning hours. There is a chance that some of them will become severe, although that threat is very small over the next few hours between now and sunrise.

There will be a window when severe weather could occur, between 4-10 a.m. over Northwest Alabama, sinking southeast with time. Strong to severe storms will become more likely around noon and beyond, especially in areas from I-59 southeast to I-85 as instability increases with the heating of the day over Central Alabama.

We will be monitoring the situation carefully through the overnight and into the morning.

Expect another update just after 3:30 a.m. unless conditions warrant an earlier one.

P.S.: 70F in Muscle Shoals at 1 a.m. on a January morning is unusual. Hence the severe weather threat.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather