Showers Return; A Very Mild Weekend
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SHOWERS RETURN: A quick check of the radar early this morning shows a few widely scattered showers across our state as moist air has returned. Temperatures are mild at daybreak with readings mostly in the 50s. The day will be mostly cloudy with a few passing showers; we rise into the mid 60s this afternoon as the warm-up continues.
OUR WEEKEND: A short wave will bring better dynamic support for rain tomorrow in the form of showers and thunderstorms. SPC maintains just the very low end, 5 percent severe weather probabilities due to limited instability and only moderate shear values. The rain could come at any time during the day, with the better chance of the stronger storms during the midday and afternoon hours. The day will be very mild with a high in the upper 60s.
Sunday will be even warmer, with low 70s possible. It is unlikely we reach the record high for January 22, which is 78 set way back in 1937. But, we will be almost twenty degrees above average for mid-January in Alabama. The sky will stay mostly cloudy, and a few scattered showers are possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: A cold front will bring another band of organized rain and storms into Alabama. A negative tilt upper trough will be north of the state with good dynamic support, but once again there is very little surface based instability, and the severe weather risk at this point looks marginal. More than likely it will be a late night band of storms with gusty winds and heavy rain. The 06Z GFS hints the main band of showers and storms will pass through Alabama between 10:00 p.m. Sunday and 6:00 a.m. Monday. Then, the sky becomes partly sunny during the day Monday. No cold air is really involved, so highs will be in the low 60s Monday afternoon.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: Tuesday should be sunny and pleasant; clouds return Wednesday, and for now it looks like we will deal with periods of rain and a few thunderstorms Wednesday night through Friday. There is great model disagreement meaning there just isn’t a way to provide details at this point. No cold air next week; highs will be mostly in the 60s.
LONG RANGE: The GFS ensembles have taken away the negative NAO look for early February and have trended toward keeping it positive, which would again keep the bulk of the really cold air north and west of Alabama. Cold shots here during a positive NAO are pretty short lived, like we have seen in recent months. Still, the season has a long way to go and we usually see at least one pattern flip. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and all the graphics.
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I am on the move later today; I will be in New Orleans this weekend to speak at the AMS student conference… I will post forecast notes from the road this afternoon… Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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