Warmer This Afternoon; Moist Air Returns Tonight
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
FROSTY MORNING: Just about everybody is below freezing early this morning. A quick check of our Skywatcher chat session at 5:30 reveals these temperatures…
Concord 25
Black Creek (northeast of Gadsden) 25
Fayette 26
Center Point 27
But, despite the cold morning, we warm nicely today with a high in the upper 50s for most communities along with a good supply of sunshine. Clouds increase tonight as moist air begins to return.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Tomorrow will be a cloudy and very mild day with a chance of scattered showers. Temperatures will rise into the mid 60s with a good southerly breeze. Saturday still looks wet at times with occasional showers and thunderstorms. SPC has low end 5 percent severe probabilities in place for Saturday; looks like a marginal severe weather setup for now with surface based CAPE values generally under 500 j/kg. There will be sufficient shear for a few sustained updrafts, however, and with any cold season system like this you have to keep a close eye on radar.
Rain amounts of about 1/2 inch look likely, and it could rain at anytime Saturday until 6:00 p.m. If you are headed to the Alabama National Championship celebration at Bryant-Denny Stadium, take the rain gear.
Sunday looks mostly cloudy and warm, with just a few isolated showers around. The 00Z GFS has come in with a high of 72 degrees… pretty balmy for January. Then, a cold front moves through here Sunday night with another round of showers and storms. Seems like the best chance of rain with this front will come from about 10:00 p.m. Sunday through 9:00 a.m. Monday. And, again, we will watch for strong storms, but the severe weather parameters look rather marginal.
NEXT WEEK: Tuesday and most of Wednesday are looking dry and mild, with highs in the 60s. The ECMWF, the model of choice in the medium range this season, brings a strong upper trough and surface front in here with a healthy round of showers and storms Thursday, and we will need to monitor that one for severe weather potential as it gets closer. The GFS has gone into lala land with a cutoff low over western Mexico Thursday and nothing really significant here, but that solution is rejected for this forecast package. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.
FEBRUARY: And, we are still getting signs of a possible NAO flip to negative around the beginning of the new month, which might open the door for more prolonged cold periods here. The operational GFS continues to show a big shot of cold, Arctic air moving into much of the continental U.S…. again see the video for details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I will be doing a weather program at Chelsea Park Elementary today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to receive more just like it.
